Saturday, May 18, 2019

Notes on the April 2019 Employment Situation in Massachusetts: Unemployment Rate 2.9%, Payrolls +4,100.

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OVERVIEW
  • The state’s total unemployment rate for April dropped to 2.9 percent according to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development.  Over the year, the state’s unemployment rate dropped six-tenths of a percentage point.  
  • From April 2018 to April 2019, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that Massachusetts added 37,100 jobs. After adding 4,000 private sector jobs, the state netted 4,100 total new jobs. 
  • Professional, Scientific and Business Services added 2,300 jobs with 11,100 jobs added over the past 12 months. 
  • Education and Health Services added 1,600 jobs over the month. Over the year, this sector gained 12,900 jobs
  • Manufacturing lost 500 jobs in April and has lost 1,200 jobs over the year. 
  • The Construction sector added 2,400 jobs and has added 2,700 over the year. 
  • Trade, Transportation and Utilities lost 3,500 jobs over the month. Over the year, the sector added 2,200 jobs.
  • Financial Activities, Information and Other Services added 400, 300 and 200 jobs, respectively. All three sectors are up over the past 12 months: FA-200, I-1,700 and OS-200.
  • Government added 100 jobs in April. However, over the past 12 months this sector has gained 4,900 jobs.
  • The 2.9 percent rate in Massachusetts is seven-tenths of a point lower than the national rate of 3.6 percent.
  • According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, eight states had lower unemployment rates in April, two of which were from New England: Vermont and New Hampshire. 

Table A: Historic Low Unemployment Rates in MA since 1977 

Source: https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/ststdsadata.txt

ANALYSIS

Outperforming most other states, the Massachusetts jobs creation machine continues to generate jobs— pushing the unemployment rate lower.  April’s rate matches similar ones last seen during the advent of the dotcom bubble (See Table A). 

“Year to date the Commonwealth’s economy has added 25,400 jobs showing that even with a low 2.9 percent unemployment rate, Massachusetts employers continue to add jobs to help fuel their growth needs,” Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said today. 

This month Professional, Scientific and Business Services are up 1.9 percent over last year while Manufacturing lost 0.5 percent of its jobs. 

Year over year, the sub-sectors driving Professional Scientific and Business Services were Management of Companies and Technical Services which grew 4.1 percent and 2.4 percent respectively.  

The Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation sub-sector drove Leisure and Hospitality over the past year with 7.8 percent growth. The Bay State’s Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate slid slightly in April to 67.8 percent. The national LFP rate currently is 62.8 percent.  The state labor force decreased by 3,200 workers in April; it now stands mostly unchanged at 3.84 million. There are 112,200 workers considered unemployed in Massachusetts. 

February 2000 was the last month in which the state’s unemployment rate dropped to 2.9 percent with an LFP rate of 67.9 (See Table A).  

The rate is still shy of the record lows according to records going back to 1977. from May 2000 to October 2000, the Bay State registered six straight months of a 2.6 percent unemployment rate. (See Figure A). 

Since 1977, unemployment in Massachusetts has only significantly exceeded the national rate during three periods:  during 1977-1978 (for 18 months) 1990-1993 (38 months) and 2006-2007 (16 months). 



Figure A: Comparing U.S. and Massachusetts Unemployment Rates 
1977-2019

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FRED. 



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