US EMPSIT: January 2019: U-Rate: 4.0%; Jobs: +304,000

OVERVIEW

• The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0 percent in January with payrolls expanding by 304,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate changed little at 63.2 percent. The Employment-Population ratio also remained at 60.7 percent. Both measures are up 0.5 percentage points over the year. 
• Job gains took place in Leisure and Hospitality (+74,000) and Construction (+52,000) Health Care (+42,000) and Transportation and Warehousing (+27,000) In addition, Professional and Business Services added 30,000 jobs.
• According to the BLS, the following sectors saw little or no change in employment:  Wholesale Trade, Information and Financial Activities. 
• Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 85 cents or 3.2 percent. In January, the average hourly private nonfarm wage rang in at $27.56. The average workweek for all employees was unchanged at 34.5 hours. 
• The number of persons employed part-time increased to 5.1 million in January, most of it coming from the private sector and due to the shutdown.
• The number of long-termed unemployed (greater than 27 weeks) remained unchanged at 1.3 million. 

ANALYSIS

If anyone was looking for the federal government shutdown to pause the American jobs machine, they will have to look elsewhere. The economy entered its 100th straight month of increased employment. 

According to the latest measurement, the shutdown had minimal impact on job creation with the payrolls number arriving at 304,000.  

Wall Street economists expected a January print of approximately 170,000 jobs.  

On Wednesday, ADP, the payroll processing company, reported an increase of 213,000 private sector jobs in January. Today, the BLS reported the economy created 296,000 private sector jobs. Both measures generally track together (See chart above). 

According to the BLS, federal government employment was unchanged in January. The agency explained: “Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received pay (or will receive pay) for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.” 

Revisions to the two previous months resulted in a decline of 70,000 jobs. The November 2018 number was revised up from +176,000 to +196,000. However, the December number was revised downward from +312,000 to +222,000. 

The decline is explained by the BLS adjustment of its annual benchmarking process. Accounting for these revisions, the three-month average rang in at 241,000 per month. 

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NEEP: "Employment growth will be constrained by the number of available workers"

From Alan Clayton-Matthews' presentation to the New England Economic Partnership conference at the Boston Fed yesterday.  A recurring challenge faces Massachusetts and New England: "demographic constraints." Because the region is not growing its working-age population as quickly as the rest of the nation, employers will struggle to find workers. For a variety of reasons older workers may see the need to remain in the labor force due to either financial considerations or in response to other incentives to remain on the job.  

More from Professor Clayton-Matthews: "Construction will be the fastest growing sector, but health services and skilled business sectors will add the most jobs."  Through 2021 the composition of the Massachusetts workforce will not be radically different than what we see today with the erosion of jobs in manufacturing. 

For a recap of the discussion from yesterday's conference, read Michael Norton's State House News Service dispatch. 

Massachusetts adds 3,900 jobs in April 2017 as unemployment rate ticks up to 3.9 percent

OVERVIEW

• In its preliminary estimates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that Massachusetts added 3,900 jobs in April. The job gains over the previous month (March 2017) occurred in Professional, Scientific, and Business Services; Education and Health Services; Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; Other Services; Information; and Manufacturing.
• The state’s labor force participation rate increased to 66.5 percent from 65.9 percent with an increase of 33,000 entrants into the job market.
• Government lost 1,000 jobs in April but since last year the sector has added 7,700 jobs or 1.7 percent.

ANALYSIS 

• More workers are coming off the sidelines to enter the job market. The state’s unemployment rate for April 2017 increased only because the labor force saw an increase of 33,000 workers or 1.5 percent since last year. This represents a healthier view of full employment. The unemployment rate of 3.9 percent is still lower than the national rate of 4.4 percent. Since April 2016, the Administrative & Support, Waste Management, and Remediation sector added 7,000 jobs, the percentage leader at 3.9 percent. The Health Care and Social Assistance subsector continues to grow adding 18,300 jobs — at a 3.0 percent clip. Education Services has remained flat adding zero jobs while the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation subsector lost 1,300 jobs. Local government remains a strong jobs generator with 5,800 jobs. Despite well-known struggles, the Retail sector added 4,100 since last April.

A brief analysis of last week's Massachusetts jobs report

My analysis of last week's MA Jobs Number and URate.