The November 2018 Employment Situation in Massachusetts

U-Rate: 3.4%; +4,600; +60,500 YoY

OVERVIEW

• According to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, the state’s total unemployment rate dropped one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.4 percent in November.
• According to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, the state added 4,600 jobs in November. 
• he state’s unemployment rate was three-tenths of a percentage point lower than the national average of 3.7 percent. 
• The state’s Labor Force Participation Rate (LFP) remained at 68.0 percent. Since November 2017, the LFP rate by 2.7 percentage points.
• Trade, Transportation and Utilities added 3,100 over the month and Professional, Scientific and Business Services added 1,700 with Education and Health Services adding 1,200.
• Financial Activities lost 700 jobs over the month with Construction (-500), Other Services (-300) and Manufacturing (-100) also losing jobs in November. 
• Two sectors remained unchanged over the month: Government and Leisure and Hospitality.

ANALYSIS
Since January the Massachusetts monthly unemployment rate averaged 3.5 percent. The state continues to enjoy an unemployment rate less than the national rate. 

The jobs economy is driven mostly by the state’s Professional, Scientific and Business Services sector, which created 27,600 jobs since last November. However, the Leisure and Hospitality sector shed 800 jobs since that time. Financial Activities only added 700 jobs. Government has lost jobs. 

Education and Health Services comprise the largest sector in Massachusetts. (See table above) Over the past 12 months it has added 14,400 jobs. 

Assuming the BLS figure of 60,500 new jobs, the state created a monthly average of approximately 5,000 jobs since last November.  Northern New England is benefiting from low unemployment rates. 

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The Massachusetts Employment Situation: U-Rate 3.5%; Jobs 4,400; 64,400 YoY

OVERVIEW

•    According to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, the state’s total unemployment rate dropped one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.5 percent in October.
  
•    According to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, the state also added 4,400 jobs in October.
  
•    The state’s unemployment rate was two-tenths of a percentage point lower than the national average of 3.7 percent.
  
•    The state’s Labor Force Participation Rate (LFP) continued to improve since October 2017. It now stands at 68.0 percent, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. October estimates show 3.69 million residents were employed in Massachusetts.
  
•    The largest private sector percentage job gains over the past year took place in the Construction (+5.4); Professional, Scientific and Business Services (+5.1); Information (+2.0); and Education and Health Services (+1.9).
  
•    Meanwhile, Financial Activities; Leisure and Hospitality each lost 400 jobs while Government lost 300 jobs. 

ANALYSIS

The Massachusetts economy steamrolls ahead. By adding 4,400 jobs, the state’s economy showed no signs of slowing down.

 "The Massachusetts unemployment rate continues to remain low at 3.5 percent and has now held below 4 percent for 30 consecutive months. With the Commonwealth's consistently low rate of unemployment, the economy continues to add jobs at a healthy clip and our labor force continues to grow to meet employment needs," Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said. 

The job market is so attractive that the October labor force increased by 10,800. Employers are competing for talent. 

Consolidation in the state’s financial sector has been gradual. The state’s financial sector has not appreciably grown as the economy recovered from the Great Recession. 

In February 2007, 10 months before the recession began, the sector employed 232,000 workers; today it employs 222,000 workers on a seasonally adjusted basis. 

However, wages in the sector have increased in real terms. The average hourly wage for financial workers in January 2007 was $36.45 compared to today’s average hourly wage of $42.55. The ascent in wages picked up slightly in July 2007 as jobs in the sector began to recover. 

As defined by the BLS, the financial sector classification includes finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing subsectors. 

Massachusetts Employment Situation: 3.5% URate with +21,400 new jobs

OVERVIEW

• The state’s unemployment rate remained at 3.5 percent in June according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• Massachusetts added 63,200 jobs since June 2017 with the state’s unemployment rate decreasing three-tenths of a percentage point from 3.8 percent in June 2017. 
• The state’s unemployment rate was five-tenths of a percentage point lower than the national rate of 4.0.
• The leisure and hospitality sector added 6,600 jobs.
• The largest private sector percentage gains over the year were in the construction, professional and other services.
• Professional, scientific and business services sector added 4,700 jobs while Other Services gained 2,500 jobs
• Construction added 2,300 jobs while manufacturing added 1,700 jobs. 
• The information and financial activities sectors lost jobs over the month, 300 and 400 jobs respectively.
• Education and health services gained 1,000 jobs while trade, transportation and utilities remained unchanged.
• Government added 3,200 jobs but over the past year the level remained flat.

ANALYSIS

Sidelined workers in the Bay State are returning to the job market. At 66.9 percent, the state’s labor force participation rate is up 1.3 percent over June 2017. “Over the last year, over 100,000 more Massachusetts residents have become employed in the Commonwealth, helping to push our labor force participation rate to its highest level in 10 years - a full four percentage points higher than the national average.” Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said today. 

To match the lowest unemployment in recent decades (the 2.7 annual rate for the Year 2000), how many jobs would the state have to create at a LFP rate that increases by just another half of one percent? 

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Jobs Calculator, the Bay State needs to create a monthly average of 7,463 jobs over the next 12 months at the same time increasing its LFP to 67.4 percent. 

Whether an economy already at full employment can achieve such a goal is uncertain, yet there may be some room to grow if the economy exceeds expectations. 

Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs still comprise a small share of Massachusetts total employment at 6.8 percent remaining above trend. However, the Wall Street Journal today reported that there are  no longer any “manufacturing-intensive” counties in Massachusetts defined by a threshold whereby 25 percent of a state’s workforce is employed making things.

A one-year look at where the jobs are in Massachusetts

The state's total unemployment rate dropped to 3.9 percent in September from 4.2 percent according to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development. From September 2016 to September 2017, BLS estimates Massachusetts has added 62,300 jobs. 

Job growth was strong in the state's Health Care and Education and Professional Services supersectors. Specifically, the Health Care and Social Assistance subsector added 20,600 jobs since September 2016 with Professional, Scientific and Technical Services adding 8,500. Meanwhile, Construction added 6,200 jobs. 

Chart by East Boston Economics

MA Employment Situation: 4.2 Percent 2,900 jobs added in May

OVERVIEW

• The state’s total unemployment rate increased to 4.2 percent in May from the April rate of 3.9 percent.
• The April estimate was revised to a loss of 800 jobs per the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate provided to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD). 
• The labor force increased by 17,100 residents in April, as 4,900 more residents were employed and 12,200 more residents were unemployed over the month.
• Education and Health Services added 2,500 jobs over the month. Over the year, Education and Health Services gained 19,100 jobs. 
• Information added 500 jobs over the month; over the year, Information gained 4,300 jobs.
• Over the year, federal, state and local government combined gained 5,400 jobs.
•  Professional, Scientific, Technical Service subsector lost 2,100 jobs between April and May; while retail trade lost 1,200 jobs.
•  Construction added 300 jobs in May; since last year the sector has added 4,800 jobs.
• Trade, transportation and utilities lost 800 jobs in May but gained 3,900 over the past year. 

ANALYSIS 

From May 2016 to May 2017, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates Massachusetts has added 58,300 jobs. The state’s labor force participation rate – the total number of residents 16 or older who worked or were unemployed and actively sought work in the last four weeks – increased thus explaining the higher jobless rate.  “During 2017 Massachusetts continues to experience large increases in the labor force. May’s labor force participation rate of 66.7%, the highest rate since October 2008, allows for ongoing economic growth. As the pool of people actively searching for work increases, our workforce development agencies remain focused on ensuring that the next generation of job seekers have access to next generation job training,” outgoing Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Ronald L. Walker, II said. The LFP over the year has increased 1.7 percent. However, the state’s unemployment rate of 4.2 moved toward the national rate of 4.3 percent.  The state’s retail sector lost 1,200 but has gained 3,200 jobs since last year. Manufacturing continues to decline with 200 lost jobs in May and 1,900 since last year.  At the end of December 2016, the state’s unemployment rate stood at a low of 3.1 percent. That rate was much lower than the rates for medium-sized cities in the Commonwealth (see table below).

 

Massachusetts adds 3,900 jobs in April 2017 as unemployment rate ticks up to 3.9 percent

OVERVIEW

• In its preliminary estimates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that Massachusetts added 3,900 jobs in April. The job gains over the previous month (March 2017) occurred in Professional, Scientific, and Business Services; Education and Health Services; Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; Other Services; Information; and Manufacturing.
• The state’s labor force participation rate increased to 66.5 percent from 65.9 percent with an increase of 33,000 entrants into the job market.
• Government lost 1,000 jobs in April but since last year the sector has added 7,700 jobs or 1.7 percent.

ANALYSIS 

• More workers are coming off the sidelines to enter the job market. The state’s unemployment rate for April 2017 increased only because the labor force saw an increase of 33,000 workers or 1.5 percent since last year. This represents a healthier view of full employment. The unemployment rate of 3.9 percent is still lower than the national rate of 4.4 percent. Since April 2016, the Administrative & Support, Waste Management, and Remediation sector added 7,000 jobs, the percentage leader at 3.9 percent. The Health Care and Social Assistance subsector continues to grow adding 18,300 jobs — at a 3.0 percent clip. Education Services has remained flat adding zero jobs while the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation subsector lost 1,300 jobs. Local government remains a strong jobs generator with 5,800 jobs. Despite well-known struggles, the Retail sector added 4,100 since last April.

A brief analysis of last week's Massachusetts jobs report

My analysis of last week's MA Jobs Number and URate.