Notes on the May 2019 Massachusetts Employment Situation: U-Rate: 3.0 %; Jobs: -3,600

OVERVIEW

• The state’s total unemployment rate for May increased to 3.0 percent according to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development.  
• From May 2018 to May 2019, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that Massachusetts added 26,700 jobs.  
• Professional, Scientific and Business Services added 1,000 jobs with 7,100 jobs added over the past 12 months. 
• Education and Health Services lost 300 jobs over the month. Over the year, this sector gained 14,300 jobs
• Manufacturing gained 100 jobs in May and has lost 1,800 jobs over the year. 
• The Construction sector lost 2,300 jobs and has lost 700 over the year. 
• Trade, Transportation and Utilities lost 2,300 jobs over the month. Over the year, the sector lost 600 jobs.
• Financial Activities lost 100 while Information added 300 jobs in May. 
• Growth in the Other Services sector remained unchanged but is up 2,300 over the year. 
• Government added 400 jobs in May. Over the past 12 months this sector has gained 4,900 jobs.
• The 3.0 percent rate in Massachusetts is six-tenths of a point lower than the national rate of 3.6 percent.
• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment rates were lower in 6 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia in May. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in Washington state and was essentially unchanged in 49 states and in D.C. 

ANALYSIS

Until last month, December 2016 was the last time the unemployment rate in Massachusetts ticked up by one-tenth of a point. In May 2019, the state’s rate ticked up to 3.0 percent.  The state’s economy is still at full employment.  

“Massachusetts continues to experience a strong economy with a low unemployment rate of 3.0 percent and over 60,000 more employed residents and 17,500 fewer unemployed residents in the last year. Also, the Commonwealth’s labor force participation rate remains at a near 15-year high and is 5 points above the US rate,” Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said.  

The state’s labor force totals 3.84 million representing a 67.8 percent labor force participation rate. 

Manufacturing gained 100 jobs over the month, but the sector is still losing jobs since last year (1,800). Trade, Transportation and Utilities lost 2,300 jobs and Education and Health Services lost 300 jobs. However, Government added 400 jobs, part of the 4,200 jobs it gained year over year. 

Since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009, the state’s unemployment rate has dropped significantly from 8.1 percent. During the recovery, the Massachusetts unemployment rate increased by no more than 0.1 percent six times. That means the rate has dropped or remained unchanged for 109 of the 120 months that mark the recession (see Chart A). 

Chart A.

Massachusetts enjoys the 12th best unemployment rate in the U.S. (See Table A.) Two other New England states are atop the nation: Vermont has the lowest unemployment rate at 2.1 percent while New Hampshire registers third in the nation with its 2.4 percent rate.  

Table A: New England Unemployment Rates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The BLS updated the state’s county employment picture with April 2019 data.  Middlesex and Hampshire counties enjoyed the lowest unemployment rates. More than half of the counties — 8 of 14— recorded rates lower than the statewide rate of 3.0 percent for April 2019 (See Table B).

Table B: County Unemployment Rates

Massachusetts Employment Situation: 3.5% URate with +21,400 new jobs

OVERVIEW

• The state’s unemployment rate remained at 3.5 percent in June according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• Massachusetts added 63,200 jobs since June 2017 with the state’s unemployment rate decreasing three-tenths of a percentage point from 3.8 percent in June 2017. 
• The state’s unemployment rate was five-tenths of a percentage point lower than the national rate of 4.0.
• The leisure and hospitality sector added 6,600 jobs.
• The largest private sector percentage gains over the year were in the construction, professional and other services.
• Professional, scientific and business services sector added 4,700 jobs while Other Services gained 2,500 jobs
• Construction added 2,300 jobs while manufacturing added 1,700 jobs. 
• The information and financial activities sectors lost jobs over the month, 300 and 400 jobs respectively.
• Education and health services gained 1,000 jobs while trade, transportation and utilities remained unchanged.
• Government added 3,200 jobs but over the past year the level remained flat.

ANALYSIS

Sidelined workers in the Bay State are returning to the job market. At 66.9 percent, the state’s labor force participation rate is up 1.3 percent over June 2017. “Over the last year, over 100,000 more Massachusetts residents have become employed in the Commonwealth, helping to push our labor force participation rate to its highest level in 10 years - a full four percentage points higher than the national average.” Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said today. 

To match the lowest unemployment in recent decades (the 2.7 annual rate for the Year 2000), how many jobs would the state have to create at a LFP rate that increases by just another half of one percent? 

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Jobs Calculator, the Bay State needs to create a monthly average of 7,463 jobs over the next 12 months at the same time increasing its LFP to 67.4 percent. 

Whether an economy already at full employment can achieve such a goal is uncertain, yet there may be some room to grow if the economy exceeds expectations. 

Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs still comprise a small share of Massachusetts total employment at 6.8 percent remaining above trend. However, the Wall Street Journal today reported that there are  no longer any “manufacturing-intensive” counties in Massachusetts defined by a threshold whereby 25 percent of a state’s workforce is employed making things.