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March 2019 Massachusetts Employment Situation: U-Rate 3.0%, Jobs +4,100

OVERVIEW

• The state’s total unemployment rate for March remained  unchanged at 3.0 percent according to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development.  Since January the rate has fallen from 3.1 percent.
• From March 2018 to March 2019, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that Massachusetts added 28,200 jobs. After adding 5,400 private sector jobs, the state netted 4,100 total new jobs. 
• Education and Health Services added 2,000 jobs over the month. Over the year, this sector gained 12,000 jobs
• Manufacturing gained 1,700 jobs over the month; over the year, however, it has lost 600 jobs. Similarly, the Construction sector added 600 jobs but lost 500 jobs over the past year. 
• Leisure and Hospitality lost 2,400 jobs in March. Over the years, the sector lost 2,300 jobs.
• Government lost 1,300 jobs in March. However, over the past 12 months this sector has gained 4,500 jobs.
• Over the year, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped five-tenths of a percentage point.

ANALYSIS

It is hard to argue that Massachusetts is not operating at full employment. “The Massachusetts economy continues to add jobs in key sectors like Professional, Business, and Scientific Services as well as Education and Health Services.” Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said. “Those job gains, along with the labor force gains and a consistently low unemployment rate, are signals of the continued strength of the Commonwealth's job market."

The Bay State’s Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate slid slightly to 67.9 percent. The national LFP rate currently is 63.0 percent. The state labor force increased by 100 workers; it now stands at 3.84 million.  

At 3.0 percent, the state’s unemployment rate is eight-tenths of a percentage point lower than the national rate of 3.8 percent. 

Local government has added on average 246 new jobs each month. Within the Leisure and Hospitality super sector Arts, Entertainment and Recreation has outstripped Accommodations and Food Service which has lost about 500 jobs per month. (See Table B). 

Meanwhile, according to the latest regional summary from the BLS, Professional Services and Education and Health Services continue to drive employment growth. (See Table A.)

Table A: Regional Summary 

Table B: Average Monthly Job Growth by Sector in MA, Author's calculations

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Notes on the March 2019 U.S. Employment Situation: U-Rate: 3.8%; Jobs: +196,000

OVERVIEW

• Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 196,000 and the unemployment rate remained 3.8 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate was little changed at 63.0 percent. This gauge of employment has hardly moved over the past year. The Employment-Population ratio also remained at 60.6 percent.  
• Health Care (+49,000) and Professional and Business Services (+34,000) led all sectors in the March payrolls. Both sectors led job creation over the past twelve months with 398,000 and 311,000 jobs, respectively. 
• According to the BLS, the following sectors saw little or no change in employment:  Mining, Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Transportation and warehousing, Information, Financial Activities and Government.
• After adding 1,000 jobs in February, the Manufacturing sector lost 6,000 jobs, almost all of those jobs in motor vehicles and parts. 
• Average hourly earnings rose by 4 cents to $27.70. In March, average workweek for all employees rose by 0.1 to 34.5 hours after seeing a decline in February by 0.1 hour. 
• Employment continued to trend up in Food services and drinking places in March (+27,000), in line with its average monthly growth over the prior 12 months said BLS.
• The number of persons employed part-time held steady at 4.5 million in March.
• The number of long-termed unemployed (greater than 27 weeks) remained unchanged at 1.3 million. This group represents 21.1 percent of all unemployed.

ANALYSIS

Anyone looking for a stronger revision to the February employment situation report of 20,000 jobs will be disappointed by the final print for the month: 33,000.  That new number was the weakest since September 2017.

Even January was revised upward only slightly from the February-revised 311,000 to 312,000. 

The BLS said the revisions resulted in a three-month average of 180,000 (down for the same period for the first quarter of 2018).  

Still today’s number, a positive snap-back, encouraged some optimism. The headline of 196,000 new jobs did top Wall Street expectations of 180,000 for the month. Marvin Loh, global macro strategist at State Street, told Yahoo News that the March jobs report will be “the first clean one in a while” now the fallout from the government shutdown is mostly over. 

The widely-read ADP payroll processing firm survey earlier this week reported a gain of 129,000 private sector jobs, the BLS contrasted with 182,000 jobs. 

The question remains the cohort that is still sidelined from the job growth of the past decade. The BLS reports that 95.5 million were out of the labor force compared to 95.4 last March The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March; the BLS noted that this ratio has been either 60.6 or 60.7 percent since October 2018. 

Two closely-watched indicators, persons marginally attached to the labor force and discouraged workers have changed little over the past year. 

This report also showed ongoing upside. The unemployment status by educational attainment showed declines among the four major groups. The unemployment rate for workers with a high school diploma but no college declined from 4.7 in March 2018 to 3.7 in March 2019. Those with the bachelor’s degree or more continue to see lower unemployment at 2.0 percent. 

The American jobs machine continues to grow over a longer-term horizon. Since January 2007, months before the Great Recession, the American economy has added 12.9 million jobs with the construction, manufacturing and information sectors the only losers over this period. (See chart.)

Source: Author’s calculations based on BLS historical data

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State House News Service: Median home sale prices vary widely across Massachusetts

From Michael Norton at SHNS:

At $365,000, the year-to-date median home sale price in Massachusetts is up 4.9 percent over last year and raising eyebrows among buyers, sellers and those left on the outside of the market activity.

But data released Wednesday shows sellers are getting far higher prices in many areas while buyers have been able to purchase homes for much less in others, largely based around proximity to the Greater Boston area.

According to the Warren Group, year-to-date median home sale prices fell under the $365,000 statewide median in seven of the state’s 14 counties.

The lowest year-to-date median home sale price was in Berkshire County ($182,500, -2.9 percent), followed by Hampden County ($187,000, +5.7 percent), Franklin County ($210,000, +11.4 percent), Hampshire County ($255,000, +3.7 percent), Worcester County ($260,000, +3.1 percent), Bristol County ($289,000, +5.1 percent), and Plymouth County ($363,406, +8.3 percent).