On my reading list: Selected papers

Some collected readings for my list. 


Julian Reiss. The Methodology of Positive Economics: Reflections on the Milton Friedman Legacy, ed. Uskali Mäki. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,  Link.

Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Patrick J. Kennedy and Amit K. Khandelwal. The Return to Protectionism. Link.

Gilbert Cette, Lorraine Koehl, Thomas Philippon. Labor Shares in Some Advanced Economies. Link.

Grace Weishi Gu, Eswar Prasad. New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S. Link.

Robert J. Gordon. Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips Curve Viewed from a Half Century's Perspective. Link. 

Andrew B. Hall, Jesse Yoder. Does Homeownership Influence Political Behavior? Evidence from Administrative Data. Link.

Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress. The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States. Link.

Patrick Bajari, Victor Chernozhukov, Ali Hortaçsu, Junichi Suzuki. The Impact of Big Data on Firm Performance: An Empirical Investigation. Link. 

Jared Walczak, Tax Trends at the Dawn of 2020. Tax Foundation. Link.

David Neumark, Peter Shirley. The Long-Run Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Women's Earnings. Link.

David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence F. Katz, Christina Patterson, John Van Reenen. Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share. Link.

David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence F. Katz, Christina Patterson, John Van Reenen. The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms. Link.

Murray Rothbard. Robert Nozick and the Immaculate Conception of the State. Link.

Austan Goolsbee. Public Policy in an AI Economy. NBER. Link. 

Dani Rodrik. What Do Trade Agreements Really Do? Link. 

From Robert Hughes over at the American Institute for Economic Research.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in August, below the consensus expectation of 158,000. The prior two months were revised down, showing gains of 159,000 and 178,000 for July and June, respectively. The three-month average from June to August was 156,000, well below the 199,000 average since 2011, but still a decent performance. Despite the slowdown in jobs growth, hourly earnings rose, the length of the workweek increased, the unemployment rate held steady and the participation rate rose. Overall, the report provides mixed signals.

Under construction: Local economy East Boston, Ward 1-Boston, 02128

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
#DBA New Certificates issued
10 for November 2017

EMPLOYMENT DATA
State Unemployment Rate (MA)
3.7% October 2017

U.S. Unemployment Rate
4.1% October 2017

Metro Boston Unemployment Rate*
3.3% September 2017

State and Area Employment (000s)
3,643 October 2017

Jobs Added MA YoY
69,000 October 2017

Suffolk County Unemployment# & Rate 13,410; 3.1% October 17 NSA

Boston Unemployment Rates
3.1% October 2016

U.S Productivity: 3.0% 3rd Qtr. 2017 est.

Suffolk County Avg. Wkly Wage
$2,016 (1st Qtr 2017)

Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates (Boston Metro 5/2016)
$32.66 (avg. hr)
$67,930 (avg. annual salary.)

HOUSING
Housing Permits (MA): 1568
October 2017

Massachusetts Homeownership Rate
59.7% (2016)

Change in FHFA State House Price Indexes
(Seasonally Adjusted, Purchase-Only Index, 2017Q2:1.96)


CONSUMER

U.S. CPI-U, All items, 12-month % change*
0.1% (10/2017 over 10/2016) All Items YoY: +2.0%

Boston Metro Consumer Price Index
2.7% (9/2017 over 9/2016)

ENERGY

Boston Average Price - Gasoline, Unleaded Reg., Per Gallon/ 2.560 October 2017

Massachusetts Average Price Heating Oil
$2.877 per gallon 11/27/17 (excl. taxes)

Stock Market: Local:
East Boston Savings Bank Stock Latest

Bloomberg MA Stock Index (BCMAX:IND)

Hal Varian's new working paper on AI

A new NBER Working Paper by Hal Varian Artificial Intelligence, Economics, and Industrial Organization

Abstract:

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have been around for many years. However, in the last 5 years, remarkable progress has been made using multilayered neural networks in diverse areas such as image recognition, speech recognition, and machine translation.  AI is a general purpose technology that is likely to impact many industries.  In this chapter I consider how machine learning availability might affect the industrial organization of both firms that provide AI services and industries that adopt AI technology.   My intent is not to provide an extensive overview of this rapidly-evolving area, but instead to provide a short summary of some of the forces at work and to describe some possible areas for future research.

The Working Paper is available at NBER (gated).

NBER #2497 Structural Behavioral Economics

Structural Behavioral Economics by Stefano DellaVigna  

Abstract: 
What is the role of structural estimation in behavioral economics? I discuss advantages, and limitations, of the work in Structural Behavioral Economics.  I also cover common modeling choices and how to get started.  Among the advantages, I argue that structural estimation builds on, and expands, a classical behavioral tool, simple calibrations, and that it benefits from the presence of a few parsimonious behavioral models which can be taken to the data.  Estimation is also well suited for experimental work, common in behavioral economics, as it can lead to improvements in the experimental design.  In addition, at a time where policy implications of behavioral work are increasingly discussed, it is important to ground these policy implications in (estimated) models.  Structural work, however, has important limitations, which are relevant to its behavioral applications.  Estimation takes much longer and the extra degree of complexity can make it difficult to know which of a series of assumptions is driving the results.  For related reasons, it is also easy to over-reach with the welfare implications. Taking this into account, I provide a partial how-to guide to structural behavioral economics, covering:  (i) the choice of estimation method; (ii) the modeling of heterogeneity; (iii) identification and sensitivity.  Finally, I discuss common issues for the estimation of leading behavioral models.  I illustrate this discussion with selected coverage of existing work in the literature.

Gated copy here. 

A look at the MA jobs picture for October 2017

Source: Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, Author's calculations.

A new paper: Gender: An Historical Perspective

A new paper by Paola Giuliano
Social attitudes toward women vary significantly across societies. This chapter reviews recent empirical research on various historical determinants of contemporary differences in gender roles and gender gaps across societies, and how these differences are transmitted from parents to children and therefore persist until today. We review work on the historical origin of differences in female labor-force participation, fertility, education, marriage arrangements, competitive attitudes, domestic violence, and other forms of difference in gender norms. Most of the research illustrates that differences in cultural norms regarding gender roles emerge in response to specific historical situations, but tend to persist even after the historical conditions have changed. We also discuss the conditions under which gender norms either tend to be stable or change more quickly.

Currently reading: Dani Rodrik's ECONOMICS RULES: THE RIGHTS AND WRONGS OF THE DISMAL SCIENCE

Thus far a wonderful explanation on economic models.  Can't wait to finish it.

Debate: Is Adam Smith the Father of Economics and Free-Market Capitalism?

Reason presents a lively debate among libertarians -- Mark Skousen of FreedomFest and Gene Epstein of Barron's-- that argues for a favorite founding father of economics: Adam Smith alone on the pedestal or a the lesser known Frenchman, Richard Cantillon leading a contingent of competing economists? 


Transcript here.