Showing posts with label Manufacturing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Manufacturing. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Monday, July 23, 2018

The threat of automation, another paper on the topic

A new NBER Working Paper by David E. Bloom, Mathew McKenna, Klaus Prettner  "Demography, Unemployment, Automation, and Digitalization: Implications for the Creation of (Decent) Jobs, 2010-2030"

Abstract:

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 percent for adults and at or below 8 percent for youth. The facts that i) most new jobs will be required in countries where "decent" jobs are less prevalent and ii) workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective.  Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Paper available for NBER members.

Monday, April 9, 2018

What happened to U.S. manufacturing employment?

New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment by Teresa C. Fort, Justin R. Pierce and Peter K. Schott   

Abstract:
We use relatively unexplored dimensions of US microdata to examine how US manufacturing employment has evolved across industries, firms, establishments, and regions.  We show that these data provide support for both trade- and technology-based explanations of the overall decline of employment over this period, while also highlighting the difficulties of estimating an overall contribution for each mechanism.  Toward that end, we discuss how further analysis of these trends might yield sharper insights. 
A gated copy of the paper is available here

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Another China Shock: Economists: "When work disappears"

Another formidable paper by the noted economist David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson: "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men.

Abstract: 
We exploit the gender-specific components of large-scale labor demand shocks stemming from rising international manufacturing competition to test how shifts in the relative economic stature of young men versus young women affected marriage, fertility and children’s living circumstances during 1990-2014. On average, trade shocks differentially reduce employment and earnings, raise the prevalence of idleness, and elevate premature mortality among young males. Consistent with Becker’s model of household specialization, shocks to male relative stature reduce marriage and fertility. Consistent with sociological accounts, these shocks raise the share of mothers who are unwed and share of children living in below-poverty, single-headed households.

Hat tip to David Warsh over at Economic Principals.


Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Which sectors provided the most job growth since January 2007: A 10-year look

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Series

Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy created 156,000 jobs in August 2017, a number below economists' consensus estimates. The unemployment rate "was little unchanged" according to the BLS, but actually ticked upward to 4.4 percent. Major job gains emerged in manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care and mining. How have these sectors fared since the peak before the Great Recession, which began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009? How does Friday's snapshot relate to longer term trends? 

The decline in manufacturing jobs in the United States has trended downward over the decades. Few workers are producing more output. The interesting takeaway from this chart is the decline in construction jobs. Despite the uptick in the economy, construction jobs are down 800,000 since January 2007.  The high-paying education and health services and professional the business services added more than two-thirds of the decade long gain to total non-farm employment. Less impressive is the gain in the generally lower paid professions of leisure and hospitality which added 2.6 million since January 2007. 

Indicators

Test