Notes on the U.S. Employment Situation for June 2019: U-rate 3.7%, Jobs +224,000

OVERVIEW

• Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 224,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate remained at 62.9 percent the same rate from one year ago. The Employment-Population ratio also remained at 60.6 percent. 
• Professional and Business Services (+51,000) and Health Care (+35,000) led all sectors in May.  Construction added 21,000 jobs. Manufacturing added 17,000 jobs.
• Employment in other industries did not change from May to June. Mining, Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Information, Financial Activities, Leisure and Hospitality and Government changed little. 
• Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents to $27.90. Since June 2018 wages are up 3.1 percent. 
• In June, the average workweek for all employees remained at 34.4 hours.  
• The number of persons employed part-time was unchanged in June (4.3 million). The number of long-termed unemployed (greater than 27 weeks) remained unchanged at 1.4 million and accounted for 23.7 percent of all unemployed. 
• In June 1.6 million persons were not in the workforce but wanted and were available for work and sought employment in the last year. This group known as “workers marginally attached to the labor force” was unchanged since last year. BLS reports that 1.1 million of this group had not searched for work “for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.” 
• Revisions to the two previous months counted 11,000 less jobs than reported initially. April 2019 was revised from 224,000 to 216,000 while May 2019 was revised from 75,000 to 72,000. 

ANALYSIS

After a weak May payrolls report (+72,000) the U.S. jobs machine roared back with 224,000 new jobs in June. 

Professional and Business Services, Health Care and Transportation and Warehousing sectors lead June’s growth. 

Overall, the jobs machine is clearly slowing down. Employment growth, according to the BLS, has averaged 172,000 this calendar year compared with an average of 223,000 in 2018. 

However, today’s BLS report shattered expectations;  Wall Street expected a gain of 160,000 new jobs. While slower than one year ago, the private sector culled 191,000 new jobs. The parallel measure, the ADP National Employment Report, earlier this week projected a gain of 106,000 private jobs.  

With the BLS revisions, the three-month average for U.S. job growth rang in at 171,000. 

Despite uncertainty about international trade, the U.S. Manufacturing sector is holding its own. The Manufacturing sector added 17,000 jobs in June; while little changed over the past four months, manufacturing is growing albeit slowly. Thus far the sector has averaged 8,000 per month, compared with 22,000 last year. 

The trade-tariff impasse is not diminishing growth in the sector. While the manufacturing sector employs approximately 120,000 less workers than it did before the Great Recession, average hourly wages are rising steadily. (See Figure A.)  

Unemployment in the manufacturing sector declined from June 2018 to June 2019, from 3.1 percent to 2.8 percent. For most part, manufacturing attracts workers on the lower end of educational attainment, but wages are good entry point to the middle class. These workers have also fared well overall in the economy. Unemployment for those with less than a high school degree was 5.8 percent in May. Workers with a high school diploma and no college and some college faced unemployment rates of 3.9 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively. 

Figure A:  Employment and Average Hourly Wages in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Statista takes a look at yesterday's JOLTS data

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U.S. Job Growth over the last 7.8 years: Pretty good!

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ADP Jobs Number: 204,000 Private Non-farm Jobs Added in April 2018

March 2018 U.S. Employment Situation -- U-rate, 4.1 percent; Payrolls +103.000

OVERVIEW

• The unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent for the sixth consecutive month in March with payrolls expanding by 103,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) changed little at 62.9 percent. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.4 percent.
• In March the employment grew in the manufacturing, health care and mining sectors with the durable goods sub-sector accounting for approximately three-fourths of the gain in manufacturing. 
• Health care added 22,000 jobs a gain consistent with the past 12-month average while construction slowed down after a February gain. 
• Professional and business services added 33,000 jobs. This sector has added 502,000 jobs over the past year.
• After increasing 47,000 in February, retail lost 4,000 jobs in March. 
• Employment in the other major sectors—wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality and government —changed little over the month.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees rose by 8 cents to $26.82, representing a gain of 2.7 percent over the past year. The average work week remained at 34.5 hours.

ANALYSIS
The March payroll jobs report could best be summed up as “less than stellar.” Economists were expecting a monthly gain of between 185,000 and 193,000 jobs. Most economists believe the U.S. economy has reached full employment with some worrying about running out of workers because of fast job growth. However, the number of involuntary part-time workers remained unchanged at 5 million while the number of marginally attached workers checked in at 1.5 million persons, a number not much different from last year. The number of part-time workers in the labor pool increased from 20.7 million in March 2017 to 21.3 million in March 2018. The retail sector returned to its current state of “disliked normalcy” with employment declining by 13,000 jobs in general merchandise stores, “offsetting a gain of the same size in February,” according to the BLS.  Earnings in this sector have bounced back a bit since a decline that began in 2016 (See chart below). The LFP rate decreased from both February 2018 (month over month) and March 2017 (year over year). Today’s report included good news. Average hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents over the past year. Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, told Bloomberg News that despite the weak payrolls gain, "There is still evidence of an acceleration in the underlying pace of employment growth… looking through the volatility, employment growth is trending higher and wage growth is starting to heat up.”  As a result, pressure will build on the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank to abide by its commitments to raise rates this year.

ADP Private Employment for February 2018: +235,000

Manufacturing says "See you in December": BLS: NFP +148,000 U-Rate 4.1%

OVERVIEW

• The unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month in December while payrolls expanded by 148,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) remained at 62.7 percent. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.1 percent. 
• Employment in health care increased by 31,000 while construction added 36,000 jobs. 
• The manufacturing sector added 25,000 jobs. The BLS reports that this sector added 196,000 jobs in 2017 after a dismal 2016 which saw a loss of 16,000 jobs. 
• Professional and business services kept pace in 2017 with the previous year adding 44,000 jobs per month. In December, the sector added 19,000 jobs 
• Employment in the other major sectors— mining, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities and government —changed little over the month. 
• Over the year, the BLS reports the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed were down by 0.6 percentage point and 926,000, respectively.

ANALYSIS

In December, the American jobs machine took a breather. The payroll employment (+148,000) fell below the Wall Street consensus of 190,000 jobs.  According to an ADP report earlier this week, private sector employment increased by 250,000 jobs in December.  The unemployment rate for the major work groups remained low. The unemployment rate for African-Americans fell to 6.8 percent the lowest ever.  The retail sector fared better under the last year of the previous administration where it increased by 203,000 in 2016. In 2017 it lost 67,000. Employment in general merchandise edged down in 2017 shedding 67,000 jobs. However, Manufacturing added 196,000 jobs in 2017 following little net change in 2016. The November employment report was revised up from +228,000 to +252,000 and the change in October was revised down from +244,000 to +211,000 (Combined over two months, a net loss of 9,000 jobs). Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 204,000 a month.  In December, average hourly earnings for all employees increased by 9 cents to $26.63; over the past year, hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents or 2.5 percent. The labor force participation rate has not changed over the year. It remains at 62.7 percent.  The number of workers employed part-time for economic reasons has declined by 639,000 over the past year.  

 

Massachusetts Employment Situation: November Jobs +6,700; U-Rate: 3.6%

OVERVIEW

• According to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, the state’s total unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent in November from 3.7 percent in October.
• From November 2016 to November 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates Massachusetts has added 65,200 jobs.
• In November, the Leisure and Hospitality sector lead the way in job creation by adding 4,200 jobs over the month.  
• The Education and Health Services sector the Construction sector each added 2,800 jobs.
• The Professional, Scientific and Business Services, which has gained the most jobs year over year (+19,500), gained 2,400 jobs in the past month.
• Manufacturing added 1,600 jobs while the Information, Financial Activities, Other Services and Trade Transportation and Utilities sectors lost jobs. Of the private sector categories, only the Information sector lost jobs year over year.  
• Government (Federal, state and local) which has shed 3,500 jobs since last November lost 600 jobs.
• The EOLWD noted that the state’s labor force participation rate decreased one-tenth of a percentage point to 65.4 percent over the month. However, the LFP rate increased by 0.7 percentage point since November 2016.

ANALYSIS

The state’s unemployment rate 3.6 percent continued to remain lower than the national rate (4.1 percent). “Year-to-date the jobs and labor force estimates indicate a strong and stable economy in the Commonwealth.  November also marks the 13th consecutive month of private sector job growth, " remarked Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta. 

The labor force participation rate, the share of working-age population employed and unemployed, was 65.4 percent with 63,300 residents entering the work pool.  Only 18,300 of those were unable to find work. The state’s long-suffering manufacturing sector employment picture improved in November adding 1,600 jobs which represent an increase of 2,600 year over year.  The growth is significant since the state specializes in high tech rather than mass-production manufacturing. 

The state's largest sectors Professional, Scientific and Business Services and Education and Health Services rose 3.5 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. 

The lower-wage Leisure and Hospitality sector, however, is up 3.1 percent. Economists agree the state is at full-employment. Massachusetts. 

The number of workers ages 55 and over declined less in the Bay State than the nation. In other words, the demographic drag is offset by the number of older workers who are postponing retirement. Perhaps due to seasonality, the Other Services sector lost 1,900 jobs in the month but is up 3,900 since last November. 

Which sectors provided the most job growth since January 2007: A 10-year look

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Series

Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy created 156,000 jobs in August 2017, a number below economists' consensus estimates. The unemployment rate "was little unchanged" according to the BLS, but actually ticked upward to 4.4 percent. Major job gains emerged in manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care and mining. How have these sectors fared since the peak before the Great Recession, which began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009? How does Friday's snapshot relate to longer term trends? 

The decline in manufacturing jobs in the United States has trended downward over the decades. Few workers are producing more output. The interesting takeaway from this chart is the decline in construction jobs. Despite the uptick in the economy, construction jobs are down 800,000 since January 2007.  The high-paying education and health services and professional the business services added more than two-thirds of the decade long gain to total non-farm employment. Less impressive is the gain in the generally lower paid professions of leisure and hospitality which added 2.6 million since January 2007. 

Today's Massachusetts jobs number: 4.3% U-rate; 200 jobs lost in July 2017

OVERVIEW

• The state’s total unemployment rate increased to 4.3 percent in July and lost 200 jobs according to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development. 
• Since last July the state’s economy has added 45,200 jobs while the state’s labor force participation rate has increased by 1.5 percent. 
• The strongest job growth came in the Construction (+2,500), with Financial Activities and Education & Health Services each adding 1,300 jobs. 
• Trade, Transportation & Utilities lost 1,400 jobs over the month while Leisure and Hospitality lost 900 jobs. Information lost 300 jobs; Professional, Scientific and Business Services lost 100.
• Government lost 1,700 jobs over the month and Other Services lost 1,400 jobs.
• The new jobs estimate for June was revised to 10,900 from the 10,000 jobs reported originally.  
• Over the past year, the Health Care and Social Assistance subsector added 20,600 jobs, a sector whose year-over-year growth is nearly four times that of the growth of the Financial Activities sector. 
• On average, Massachusetts employment grew by 3,767 jobs a month since last July. 
• On average, the private sector generated 3,575 jobs monthly over the past 13 months. 

ANALYSIS 

The state’s unemployment rate, which inched up in July, has converged with the national rate at 4.3 percent. 

According to the EOLWD, the last time the state and national rates matched was April 2008 when the rate was 5.0 percent. Over the year, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased seven-tenths of a percentage point from 3.6 percent in July 2016. 

Meanwhile, the LFP rate increased by three-tenths of a point to 66.4 percent in July. 

The labor force decreased by 11,300 from 3,708,800 in June, says EOLWD as 11,500 fewer residents were employed and 300 more residents were unemployed.  

The unemployment rate remains at a stable low level but the state faces a skills gap. This may be reflected in the subpar growth of mid-tech jobs classified under Leisure and Hospitality and Other Services. 

“Although the unemployment rate remains low, we continue to see persistent gaps between the skill sets of available workers and the qualifications needed for in-demand jobs,” Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said. 

Job growth in Massachusetts continues to rely on the strength of the Education and Health Care and Professional Services super-sectors, which saw gains of 21,900 and 9,500 over the past year, respectively. In related news, the most recent Boston metropolitan survey released this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job growth over the past year across all sectors except for manufacturing. 

About those low wage jobs and robots: People versus machines: The Impact of minimum wages on at-risk jobs

A growing automated workforce of robots does not bode well for low-income workers, particularly older ones. Minimum wages don't help. Here's a new working paper by Grace Lordan, and David Neumark 

Abstract:

We study the effect of minimum wage increases on employment in automatable jobs - jobs in which employers may find it easier to substitute machines for people - focusing on low-skilled workers from whom such substitution may be spurred by minimum wage increases.  Based on CPS data from 1980-2015, we find that increasing the minimum wage decreases significantly the share of automatable employment held by low-skilled workers, and increases the likelihood that low-skilled workers in automatable jobs become unemployed. The average effects mask significant heterogeneity by industry and demographic group, including substantive adverse effects for older, low-skilled workers in manufacturing.  The findings imply that groups often ignored in the minimum wage literature are in fact quite vulnerable to employment changes and job loss because of automation following a minimum wage increase.

More at NBER.

Analysis of US EMPSIT U-Rate 4.4%; Jobs added: 220,000;

OVERVIEW

• The unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent in June while payrolls expanded by 222,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 62.8 percent for June. The employment-population ratio was little changed at 60.1 percent.
• Health care added 37,000 jobs and social assistance added 23,000 jobs.
• Employment in the other major sectors— construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information and government —were unchanged.
• Employment in the financial activities sector rose by 17,000 in June after stalling in May.
• In June, average hourly earnings for all employees increased by 4 cents to $26.25, representing a 2.5 percent year over year increase.
• In June, employment in the professional services sector rose by 35,000.
• The April employment situation report was revised up from 174,000 to 207,000 and the change from May was also revised up from the 138,000 to 152,000.  The two-month revisions accounted for 47,000 jobs that were previously not identified.
• The average workweek for all employees rose by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours.

ANALYSIS
The payroll employment report highlighting 220,000 new jobs exceeded the Wall Street consensus of 170,000 jobs.  The new number arrived as a pleasant surprise. According to an ADP report earlier this week, private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs from May to June. According to the BLS, employment growth has averaged 180,000 per month thus far this year — slightly below the 2016 average monthly gain of 187,000.   

The positive news in today’s report underscores that since January, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down by 0.4 percentage point and 658,000. The rolling three-month average with the new revisions indicate job gains of 194,000 a month. 

However, the LFP rate continues to plague the jobs recovery; it has changed little from 62.8 percent and shows “no clear trend over the past year.” The number of persons employed part-time (but who would like more hours), was little changed at 5.3 million. In June, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 197,000.  

The BLS estimates that 1.1 million persons marginally attached remain out of the workforce for reasons such as family responsibilities and school attendance. Teen-age unemployment has trimmed down from 15.9 percent last June to 13.3 percent in June 2017. 

Relative to the growth in jobs, wage gains remain weak. The report "is another illustration that the real economy is in good health," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "The only disappointment is that wage growth still shows few signs of accelerating."

PDF version of this Research Note

Massachusetts Benchmarks outlook, pessimistic and grounded on "wage-less job growth"

In its latest dispatch, the Editorial Board of MassBenchmarks isn't pleased with the Massachusetts economy: low worker productivity, unfilled niche jobs and near-zero wage growth. These factors will not bode well for state tax receipts say the consortium of economists. They explore some of the reasons for slow wage growth:

There is also some reason to believe that the declining pricing power of firms in some sectors of the economy has hampered their ability to raise wages. And rising health care costs are consuming resources employers might have used to raise employee wages in settings where these benefits are provided. Additionally, the aging of the workforce and the rising number of retirements have allowed some employers to replace their more experienced and more highly paid staff with younger and presumably lower-paid new staff members.

Read the entire summary here.

MA Employment Situation: 4.2 Percent 2,900 jobs added in May

OVERVIEW

• The state’s total unemployment rate increased to 4.2 percent in May from the April rate of 3.9 percent.
• The April estimate was revised to a loss of 800 jobs per the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate provided to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD). 
• The labor force increased by 17,100 residents in April, as 4,900 more residents were employed and 12,200 more residents were unemployed over the month.
• Education and Health Services added 2,500 jobs over the month. Over the year, Education and Health Services gained 19,100 jobs. 
• Information added 500 jobs over the month; over the year, Information gained 4,300 jobs.
• Over the year, federal, state and local government combined gained 5,400 jobs.
•  Professional, Scientific, Technical Service subsector lost 2,100 jobs between April and May; while retail trade lost 1,200 jobs.
•  Construction added 300 jobs in May; since last year the sector has added 4,800 jobs.
• Trade, transportation and utilities lost 800 jobs in May but gained 3,900 over the past year. 

ANALYSIS 

From May 2016 to May 2017, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates Massachusetts has added 58,300 jobs. The state’s labor force participation rate – the total number of residents 16 or older who worked or were unemployed and actively sought work in the last four weeks – increased thus explaining the higher jobless rate.  “During 2017 Massachusetts continues to experience large increases in the labor force. May’s labor force participation rate of 66.7%, the highest rate since October 2008, allows for ongoing economic growth. As the pool of people actively searching for work increases, our workforce development agencies remain focused on ensuring that the next generation of job seekers have access to next generation job training,” outgoing Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Ronald L. Walker, II said. The LFP over the year has increased 1.7 percent. However, the state’s unemployment rate of 4.2 moved toward the national rate of 4.3 percent.  The state’s retail sector lost 1,200 but has gained 3,200 jobs since last year. Manufacturing continues to decline with 200 lost jobs in May and 1,900 since last year.  At the end of December 2016, the state’s unemployment rate stood at a low of 3.1 percent. That rate was much lower than the rates for medium-sized cities in the Commonwealth (see table below).

 

Quick take on today's jobs numbers: U-Rate: 4.3%; Jobs: +138,000

OVERVIEW

• The unemployment rate declined to 4.3 percent in March while payrolls expanded by 138,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 62.7 percent for May. The employment-population ratio also declined by 0.2 percentage point to 60.0 percent.
• Employment rose in mining and health care, +7,000 and +24,000 respectively. 
• Employment in the other major sectors— construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities and government —were unchanged. 
• In May, average hourly earnings for all employees increased by 4 cents to $26.22, representing a 2.5 percent year over year increase. 
• In May, employment in the professional services sector remains strong keeping up with the average gains for 2016. 
• The March employment situation report was revised down further to 50,000 from 79,000 originally reported. April’s increase in jobs was also revised downward from 211,000 to 174,000.  Over the past three months, job gains averaged 121,000. 
• The average workweek for all employees was unchanged at 34.4 hours.


ANALYSIS


The payroll employment report fell well below Wall Street consensus of 180,000 jobs and below the 12-month average of 181,000. The BLS private sector employment reported 123,831 private sector jobs. According to an ADP report earlier this week, private sector employment increased by 253,000 jobs from April to March. The number of persons employed part-time (but who would like more hours), was little changed at 5.2 million suggesting the growing jobs market isn’t matching worker needs. Employment in mining, (which covers the oil and gas extraction industries) has increased by 47,000 since October 2016. Employment in food and drinking places also continued to move upward. In the last 12 months, this sector has added 267,000 jobs. The battered retail sector appeared to stem previous losses; job payrolls showed little change since April. The heavily government-funded health care sector continued to grow with hospitals adding 7,000 jobs. However current year to date average monthly growth is down at 22,000 per month compared to 32,000 for 2016. "This report is clearly soft in every material respect relative to expectations and relative to last month. That's a disappointment," said Eric Winograd, U.S. economist at Alliance Bernstein. However, he added, "I don't think it's soft enough to cause a fundamental rethink of the economic outlook."  Economists will now wait for the Federal Reserve Bank to weigh the new payrolls number as it adjusts monetary policy.

The nation's health care sector grows even during recessions. 

Comments on the April 2017 BLS jobs report: U-Rate: 4.4%; Jobs: + 211,000

OVERVIEW 
* The unemployment rate declined to 4.4 percent in March while payrolls expanded by 211,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

* The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate remained virtually the same as the previous month at 62.9 percent for April. The employment-population ratio also changed little at 60.2 percent 

* Employment rose in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, financial activities and mining. 

* Employment in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information and government were unchanged since March. 

* In April, the BLS reported that average hourly earnings for all employees increased by 7 cents to $26.19, representing a 2.5 percent year over year increase. 

 * Employment in mining rose by 9,000. The BLS noted a rebound off an October 2016 low, with the sector adding 44,000 since then. 

 * Employment in the professional services sector has grown by 612,000 over the past 12 months. 

 * The original and disappointing March employment situation report was revised down from an 98,000 increase to just a 79,000 increase. However, February was revised up from 219,000 to 232,000. 

Civilian Unemployment Rate 2007-present

ANALYSIS 

The payroll employment report beat Wall Street consensus of 191,000 jobs. The BLS private sector employment estimate arrived at 194,000 jobs beating another estimate. According to the ADP report earlier this week, private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs from March to April. 

Over the past three months, the economy has added, on average, 174,000 jobs a month. The number of long-term unemployed (greater than 27 weeks) was unchanged. The number of involuntary part-time workers declined by 281,000 in April. 

The average workweek for all private payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. 

The Leisure and Hospitality sector led the April report with 55,000 new jobs. Since the end of the recession, the sector has gained approximately one percent in the share of total jobs in the U.S. private economy. 

The BLS noted that while Health Care and Social Assistance increased by 37,000 jobs in April, that number is below “the average gain of 32,000 per year.” Financial activities added 19,000 jobs with 14,000 of those jobs coming in the insurance sector. 

The LFP rate has changed little since February 2016. “Two hundred thousand for jobs growth is just such a huge number, you’d think we’d get to a point where employers have to raise wages, and we’re still not seeing it,” Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University told the Washington Post. Even with a healthy job market, that wage goal remains elusive for workers.

PDF version of Research Note.

March 2017 Jobs Report: Rate drops to 4.5 but economy only adds 98,000 jobs

OVERVIEW

• The unemployment rate declined to 4.5 percent in March while payrolls expanded by 98,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate remained at 63.0 percent. 
• The number of persons working part-time for economic reasons was little changed at 5.6 million. 
• The number of those individuals “marginally attached to the labor force,” also remained unchanged.
• Retail jobs lost 30,000 positions in March.  General merchandise stores declined by 35,000. 
• Following gains of 219,000 in February and 216,000 in January, March employment only edged up by 98,000. 
• Mining added 11,000 bouncing back from an October 2016 low. 
• Professional and Business Services led the gains by adding 56,000 jobs. BLS reports the growth in this sector has kept pace with the average monthly gain over the past 12 months.
• The previous two months’ figures were revised downward. January’s report was revised downward from 238,000 to 216,000 and February’s report was revised downward from 235,000 to 219,000 jobs. 

ANALYSIS

The unexpectedly weak jobs report— along with the downward revisions to January and February numbers —suggest there may be something more at work than last month’s weather. Wall Street expected a gain of 175,000 jobs.

Moreover, today’s report stands in stark contrast with the ADP report released this week estimated the addition of 263,000 jobs in March.

Professional and Business Services continued to notch gains on the strength of “services to buildings and dwellings (+17,000) and architectural and engineering services (+7,000). The Health Care sector continues to post jobs gains with 20,000 per month for 2017. Construction employment changed little, however today’s report noted that jobs have “been trending up since late last summer, largely among specialty trade contractors and in residential building.”

The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours. Average hourly earnings for all private sector employees increased by 5 cents to $26.14, following a 7-cent increase in February.

Over the past year, these earnings have increased by 2.7 percent.  The retail sector continues to struggle, with major firms announcing job cuts and store closings. Approximately 15.8 million workers have jobs in the retail sector, overall.  

Of that number, 3.1 million are in general merchandise stores representing 19.6 percent of the retail workforce. The slowly growing but influential and tech-driven “non-store” retail sector comprises 3.5 percent of the retail workforce.  In March 2016 nonstore retailers employed 521,800 workers compared to 555,700 workers today, a gain of 33,900 workers.

PDF version of Research Note

February Report: Massachusetts adds 10,100 jobs; U-Rate at 3.4 percent

My latest research note, on the most recent Massachusetts jobs release, can be found here.