Massachusetts Unemployment and Job Estimates for January 2020; URate 2.8%; YoY payrolls 33,400

This just in from the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development:

BOSTON, MA (March 13, 2020)– The state’s January total unemployment remained unchanged at 2.8 percent for the sixth consecutive month following on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual revisions, the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development announced Friday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary job estimates indicate Massachusetts added 11,800 jobs in January. Over the month, the private sector added 11,100 jobs as gains occurred in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; Education and Health Services; Professional, Scientific, and Business Services; Financial Activities; Leisure and Hospitality; Other Services; Information; Construction; and Manufacturing.

From January 2019 to January 2020, BLS estimates Massachusetts added 33,400 jobs. 

The January unemployment rate was eight-tenths of a percentage point lower than the national rate of 3.6 percent reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Following year-end revisions, BLS now estimates Massachusetts added 33,400 jobs over the year. In addition to those job gains, the labor force increased by 27,000 from last year’s level, with 39,400 more residents employed and 12,300 fewer residents unemployed," Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said.

The labor force increased by 1,900 from 3,834,300 in December, as 2,300 more residents were employed and 400 fewer residents were unemployed over the month.

Over the year, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped three-tenths of a percentage point.

The state’s labor force participation rate – the total number of residents 16 or older who worked or were unemployed and actively sought work in the last four weeks – remained unchanged at 67.9 percent. Compared to January 2019, the labor force participation rate is up two-tenths of a percentage point. 

The largest private sector percentage job gains over the year were in Information; Education and Health Services; Professional, Scientific, and Business Services; and Construction.

Annual revisions to the job estimates show growth was greater than previously published for 2018 and less in 2019.  In 2018, 42,700 jobs were added over the year.   In 2019, estimates indicate 26,100 jobs were added over the year.  BLS annually updates job estimates for each state with the most up-to-date information supplied by employers.

Annual year-end revisions show the unemployment rates were slightly lower than the previously published estimates for August 2019 through November 2019. The labor force estimates were lower than previously published estimates for 2015 to 2019.

January 2020 Employment Overview

Trade, Transportation and Utilities added 3,400 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Trade, Transportation and Utilities gained 2,900 (+0.5%) jobs.

Education and Health Services added 2,000 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Education and Health Services gained 11,700 (+1.4%) jobs. 

Professional, Scientific and Business Services added 1,600 (+0.3%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Professional, Scientific and Business Services gained 7,000 (+1.2%) jobs.

Financial Activities added 1,100 (+0.5%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Financial Activities gained 1,300 (+0.6%) jobs.

Leisure and Hospitality added 800 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Leisure and Hospitality gained 2,100 (+0.6%).

Other Services added 800 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Other Services are up 100 (+0.1%) jobs.

Information added 600 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Information gained 3,600 (+3.9%) jobs.

Construction added 500 (+0.3%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Construction has added 1,000 (+0.6%) jobs.

Manufacturing added 300 (+0.1%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Manufacturing lost 1,500 (-0.6%) jobs.

Government added 700 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Government gained 5,200 (+1.1%) jobs.

Labor Force Overview

The January estimates show 3,729,900 Massachusetts residents were employed and 106,200 were unemployed, for a total labor force of 3,836,100. The unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8 percent. The January labor force increased by 1,900 from 3,834,300 in December, as 2,300 more residents were employed and 400 fewer residents were unemployed over the month. The labor force participation rate, the share of working age population employed and unemployed, remained unchanged at 67.9 percent. The labor force was up 27,000 from the 3,809,100 January 2019 estimate, with 39,400 more residents employed and 12,300 fewer residents unemployed.

Detailed labor market information is available at www.mass.gov/lmi.

Notes on the March 2019 U.S. Employment Situation: U-Rate: 3.8%; Jobs: +196,000

OVERVIEW

• Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 196,000 and the unemployment rate remained 3.8 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate was little changed at 63.0 percent. This gauge of employment has hardly moved over the past year. The Employment-Population ratio also remained at 60.6 percent.  
• Health Care (+49,000) and Professional and Business Services (+34,000) led all sectors in the March payrolls. Both sectors led job creation over the past twelve months with 398,000 and 311,000 jobs, respectively. 
• According to the BLS, the following sectors saw little or no change in employment:  Mining, Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Transportation and warehousing, Information, Financial Activities and Government.
• After adding 1,000 jobs in February, the Manufacturing sector lost 6,000 jobs, almost all of those jobs in motor vehicles and parts. 
• Average hourly earnings rose by 4 cents to $27.70. In March, average workweek for all employees rose by 0.1 to 34.5 hours after seeing a decline in February by 0.1 hour. 
• Employment continued to trend up in Food services and drinking places in March (+27,000), in line with its average monthly growth over the prior 12 months said BLS.
• The number of persons employed part-time held steady at 4.5 million in March.
• The number of long-termed unemployed (greater than 27 weeks) remained unchanged at 1.3 million. This group represents 21.1 percent of all unemployed.

ANALYSIS

Anyone looking for a stronger revision to the February employment situation report of 20,000 jobs will be disappointed by the final print for the month: 33,000.  That new number was the weakest since September 2017.

Even January was revised upward only slightly from the February-revised 311,000 to 312,000. 

The BLS said the revisions resulted in a three-month average of 180,000 (down for the same period for the first quarter of 2018).  

Still today’s number, a positive snap-back, encouraged some optimism. The headline of 196,000 new jobs did top Wall Street expectations of 180,000 for the month. Marvin Loh, global macro strategist at State Street, told Yahoo News that the March jobs report will be “the first clean one in a while” now the fallout from the government shutdown is mostly over. 

The widely-read ADP payroll processing firm survey earlier this week reported a gain of 129,000 private sector jobs, the BLS contrasted with 182,000 jobs. 

The question remains the cohort that is still sidelined from the job growth of the past decade. The BLS reports that 95.5 million were out of the labor force compared to 95.4 last March The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March; the BLS noted that this ratio has been either 60.6 or 60.7 percent since October 2018. 

Two closely-watched indicators, persons marginally attached to the labor force and discouraged workers have changed little over the past year. 

This report also showed ongoing upside. The unemployment status by educational attainment showed declines among the four major groups. The unemployment rate for workers with a high school diploma but no college declined from 4.7 in March 2018 to 3.7 in March 2019. Those with the bachelor’s degree or more continue to see lower unemployment at 2.0 percent. 

The American jobs machine continues to grow over a longer-term horizon. Since January 2007, months before the Great Recession, the American economy has added 12.9 million jobs with the construction, manufacturing and information sectors the only losers over this period. (See chart.)

Source: Author’s calculations based on BLS historical data

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September 2018 ADP National Employment Report : +230,000 nonfarm private sector jobs

ADP National Employment Report | September 2018

ADP for January 2018: +234,000 private sector jobs

The latest from ADP payroll report for January 2018

Is There a Productivity Miracle Lurking in the Economy? - WSJ

From the Streewise column in the Wall Street Journal, Is There a Productivity Miracle Lurking in the Economy?

Perhaps 2018 will be the year productivity finally begins to pick up. Technologies such as speech recognition, online chatbots and machine learning are being quickly adopted, capital spending is picking up and tight labor markets give companies an incentive to find better ways of working.

But productivity defies forecasters, and the lesson of the past is to be humble. This is a story of how little anyone really understands about what moves productivity, even though it’s the key to long-run prosperity—and to what happens to inflation and share and bond prices.

Housing consumes 39.2% of all spending for Boston

MA Employment Situation: 4.2 Percent 2,900 jobs added in May

OVERVIEW

• The state’s total unemployment rate increased to 4.2 percent in May from the April rate of 3.9 percent.
• The April estimate was revised to a loss of 800 jobs per the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate provided to the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD). 
• The labor force increased by 17,100 residents in April, as 4,900 more residents were employed and 12,200 more residents were unemployed over the month.
• Education and Health Services added 2,500 jobs over the month. Over the year, Education and Health Services gained 19,100 jobs. 
• Information added 500 jobs over the month; over the year, Information gained 4,300 jobs.
• Over the year, federal, state and local government combined gained 5,400 jobs.
•  Professional, Scientific, Technical Service subsector lost 2,100 jobs between April and May; while retail trade lost 1,200 jobs.
•  Construction added 300 jobs in May; since last year the sector has added 4,800 jobs.
• Trade, transportation and utilities lost 800 jobs in May but gained 3,900 over the past year. 

ANALYSIS 

From May 2016 to May 2017, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates Massachusetts has added 58,300 jobs. The state’s labor force participation rate – the total number of residents 16 or older who worked or were unemployed and actively sought work in the last four weeks – increased thus explaining the higher jobless rate.  “During 2017 Massachusetts continues to experience large increases in the labor force. May’s labor force participation rate of 66.7%, the highest rate since October 2008, allows for ongoing economic growth. As the pool of people actively searching for work increases, our workforce development agencies remain focused on ensuring that the next generation of job seekers have access to next generation job training,” outgoing Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Ronald L. Walker, II said. The LFP over the year has increased 1.7 percent. However, the state’s unemployment rate of 4.2 moved toward the national rate of 4.3 percent.  The state’s retail sector lost 1,200 but has gained 3,200 jobs since last year. Manufacturing continues to decline with 200 lost jobs in May and 1,900 since last year.  At the end of December 2016, the state’s unemployment rate stood at a low of 3.1 percent. That rate was much lower than the rates for medium-sized cities in the Commonwealth (see table below).