- The unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent for the sixth consecutive month in March with payrolls expanding by 103,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The Labor Force Participation (LFP) changed little at 62.9 percent. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.4 percent.
- In March the employment grew in the manufacturing, health care and mining sectors with the durable goods sub-sector accounting for approximately three-fourths of the gain in manufacturing.
- Health care added 22,000 jobs a gain consistent with the past 12-month average while construction slowed down after a February gain.
- Professional and business services added 33,000 jobs. This sector has added 502,000 jobs over the past year.
- After increasing 47,000 in February, retail lost 4,000 jobs in March.
- Employment in the other major sectors—wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality and government —changed little over the month.
- Average hourly earnings for all employees rose by 8 cents to $26.82, representing a gain of 2.7 percent over the past year. The average work week remained at 34.5 hours.
ANALYSIS
The March payroll jobs report could best be summed up as “less than stellar.” Economists were expecting a monthly gain of between 185,000 and 193,000 jobs. Most economists believe the U.S. economy has reached full employment with some worrying about running out of workers because of fast job growth. However, the number of involuntary part-time workers remained unchanged at 5 million while the number of marginally attached workers checked in at 1.5 million persons, a number not much different from last year. The number of part-time workers in the labor pool increased from 20.7 million in March 2017 to 21.3 million in March 2018. The retail sector returned to its current state of “disliked normalcy” with employment declining by 13,000 jobs in general merchandise stores, “offsetting a gain of the same size in February,” according to the BLS. Earnings in this sector have bounced back a bit since a decline that began in 2016 (See chart below). The LFP rate decreased from both February 2018 (month over month) and March 2017 (year over year). Today’s report included good news. Average hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents over the past year. Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, told Bloomberg News that despite the weak payrolls gain, "There is still evidence of an acceleration in the underlying pace of employment growth… looking through the volatility, employment growth is trending higher and wage growth is starting to heat up.” As a result, pressure will build on the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank to abide by its commitments to raise rates this year.
