New home sales are up

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What do you do with your tax refund?

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“Heckman curve” update: The data don’t seem to support the claim that human capital investments are most effective when targeted at younger ages. « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

“Heckman curve” update: The data don’t seem to support the claim that human capital investments are most effective when targeted at younger ages. « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

The Non-Non-Libertarian FAQ | Nintil

The Non-Non-Libertarian FAQ | Nintil

Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters? - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

New Working Paper from the Atlanta Fed: Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters? 

Statista takes a look at yesterday's JOLTS data

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Notes on the March 2019 U.S. Employment Situation: U-Rate: 3.8%; Jobs: +196,000

OVERVIEW

• Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 196,000 and the unemployment rate remained 3.8 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate was little changed at 63.0 percent. This gauge of employment has hardly moved over the past year. The Employment-Population ratio also remained at 60.6 percent.  
• Health Care (+49,000) and Professional and Business Services (+34,000) led all sectors in the March payrolls. Both sectors led job creation over the past twelve months with 398,000 and 311,000 jobs, respectively. 
• According to the BLS, the following sectors saw little or no change in employment:  Mining, Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Transportation and warehousing, Information, Financial Activities and Government.
• After adding 1,000 jobs in February, the Manufacturing sector lost 6,000 jobs, almost all of those jobs in motor vehicles and parts. 
• Average hourly earnings rose by 4 cents to $27.70. In March, average workweek for all employees rose by 0.1 to 34.5 hours after seeing a decline in February by 0.1 hour. 
• Employment continued to trend up in Food services and drinking places in March (+27,000), in line with its average monthly growth over the prior 12 months said BLS.
• The number of persons employed part-time held steady at 4.5 million in March.
• The number of long-termed unemployed (greater than 27 weeks) remained unchanged at 1.3 million. This group represents 21.1 percent of all unemployed.

ANALYSIS

Anyone looking for a stronger revision to the February employment situation report of 20,000 jobs will be disappointed by the final print for the month: 33,000.  That new number was the weakest since September 2017.

Even January was revised upward only slightly from the February-revised 311,000 to 312,000. 

The BLS said the revisions resulted in a three-month average of 180,000 (down for the same period for the first quarter of 2018).  

Still today’s number, a positive snap-back, encouraged some optimism. The headline of 196,000 new jobs did top Wall Street expectations of 180,000 for the month. Marvin Loh, global macro strategist at State Street, told Yahoo News that the March jobs report will be “the first clean one in a while” now the fallout from the government shutdown is mostly over. 

The widely-read ADP payroll processing firm survey earlier this week reported a gain of 129,000 private sector jobs, the BLS contrasted with 182,000 jobs. 

The question remains the cohort that is still sidelined from the job growth of the past decade. The BLS reports that 95.5 million were out of the labor force compared to 95.4 last March The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March; the BLS noted that this ratio has been either 60.6 or 60.7 percent since October 2018. 

Two closely-watched indicators, persons marginally attached to the labor force and discouraged workers have changed little over the past year. 

This report also showed ongoing upside. The unemployment status by educational attainment showed declines among the four major groups. The unemployment rate for workers with a high school diploma but no college declined from 4.7 in March 2018 to 3.7 in March 2019. Those with the bachelor’s degree or more continue to see lower unemployment at 2.0 percent. 

The American jobs machine continues to grow over a longer-term horizon. Since January 2007, months before the Great Recession, the American economy has added 12.9 million jobs with the construction, manufacturing and information sectors the only losers over this period. (See chart.)

Source: Author’s calculations based on BLS historical data

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Accelerated states tax revenue system would help Commonwealth

State House News Service: Median home sale prices vary widely across Massachusetts

From Michael Norton at SHNS:

At $365,000, the year-to-date median home sale price in Massachusetts is up 4.9 percent over last year and raising eyebrows among buyers, sellers and those left on the outside of the market activity.

But data released Wednesday shows sellers are getting far higher prices in many areas while buyers have been able to purchase homes for much less in others, largely based around proximity to the Greater Boston area.

According to the Warren Group, year-to-date median home sale prices fell under the $365,000 statewide median in seven of the state’s 14 counties.

The lowest year-to-date median home sale price was in Berkshire County ($182,500, -2.9 percent), followed by Hampden County ($187,000, +5.7 percent), Franklin County ($210,000, +11.4 percent), Hampshire County ($255,000, +3.7 percent), Worcester County ($260,000, +3.1 percent), Bristol County ($289,000, +5.1 percent), and Plymouth County ($363,406, +8.3 percent).

Tax collections from legal recreational cannabis

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Venture capital is not distributed equally across the United States

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New NBER Working Paper: "Work of the Past, Work of the Future" by David Autor

From a new NBER Working Paper, "work of the Past, Work of the Future," by David Autor 

Abstract:

Labor markets in U.S. cities today are vastly more educated and skill-intensive than they were five decades ago. Yet, urban non-college workers perform substantially less skilled work than decades earlier. This deskilling reflects the joint effects of automation and international trade, which have eliminated the bulk of non-college production, administrative support, and clerical jobs, yielding a disproportionate polarization of urban labor markets. The unwinding of the urban non-college occupational skill gradient has, I argue, abetted a secular fall in real non-college wages by: (1) shunting non-college workers out of specialized middle-skill occupations into low-wage occupations that require only generic skills; (2) diminishing the set of non-college workers that hold middle-skill jobs in high-wage cities; and (3) attenuating, to a startling degree, the steep urban wage premium for non-college workers that prevailed in earlier decades. Changes in the nature of work—many! of which are technological in origin—have been more disruptive and less beneficial for non-college than college workers.

Gated copy here.

Who gets hurt with U.S. tariffs on cars?

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What do Americans think of a 70% marginal tax rate?

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The Tax System, Explained in Beer! By Johnston Grocke

With smart phones, who needs a digital camera?

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Statista: Chart: Where Labor Productivity Is Highest | Statista

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US EMPSIT: January 2019: U-Rate: 4.0%; Jobs: +304,000

OVERVIEW

• The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0 percent in January with payrolls expanding by 304,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate changed little at 63.2 percent. The Employment-Population ratio also remained at 60.7 percent. Both measures are up 0.5 percentage points over the year. 
• Job gains took place in Leisure and Hospitality (+74,000) and Construction (+52,000) Health Care (+42,000) and Transportation and Warehousing (+27,000) In addition, Professional and Business Services added 30,000 jobs.
• According to the BLS, the following sectors saw little or no change in employment:  Wholesale Trade, Information and Financial Activities. 
• Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 85 cents or 3.2 percent. In January, the average hourly private nonfarm wage rang in at $27.56. The average workweek for all employees was unchanged at 34.5 hours. 
• The number of persons employed part-time increased to 5.1 million in January, most of it coming from the private sector and due to the shutdown.
• The number of long-termed unemployed (greater than 27 weeks) remained unchanged at 1.3 million. 

ANALYSIS

If anyone was looking for the federal government shutdown to pause the American jobs machine, they will have to look elsewhere. The economy entered its 100th straight month of increased employment. 

According to the latest measurement, the shutdown had minimal impact on job creation with the payrolls number arriving at 304,000.  

Wall Street economists expected a January print of approximately 170,000 jobs.  

On Wednesday, ADP, the payroll processing company, reported an increase of 213,000 private sector jobs in January. Today, the BLS reported the economy created 296,000 private sector jobs. Both measures generally track together (See chart above). 

According to the BLS, federal government employment was unchanged in January. The agency explained: “Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received pay (or will receive pay) for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.” 

Revisions to the two previous months resulted in a decline of 70,000 jobs. The November 2018 number was revised up from +176,000 to +196,000. However, the December number was revised downward from +312,000 to +222,000. 

The decline is explained by the BLS adjustment of its annual benchmarking process. Accounting for these revisions, the three-month average rang in at 241,000 per month. 

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Chart of the day.... or century? - AEI

Chart of the day.... or century?  from the American Enterprise Institute

http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-or-century/

Currently reading: A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel, 12th edition

Anything written by Burton G. Malkiel is worth reading twice.

Statista: Ocasio-Cortez's Tax Plan Isn't Unprecedented | Statista

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Chart: Ocasio-Cortez's Tax Plan Isn't Unprecedented | Statista

U.S. GAO - Financial Technology: Agencies Should Provide Clarification on Lenders' Use of Alternative Data

U.S. GAO - Financial Technology: Agencies Should Provide Clarification on Lenders' Use of Alternative Data

U.S. GAO - Financial Technology: Agencies Should Provide Clarification on Lenders' Use of Alternative Data

U.S. GAO - Financial Technology: Agencies Should Provide Clarification on Lenders' Use of Alternative Data

Statista tackles this chart: "How much do countries spend on education"

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Declining Labor Force Growth Explains Declining Dynamism - Marginal REVOLUTION

Declining Labor Force Growth Explains Declining Dynamism - Marginal REVOLUTION

Fixing Scripts from Pastebin Linux Shell Tutorial

Just a drop in the bucket: new EVs in the U.S.

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How the Job Market of 2018 Stacks Up: Real Time Economics - Wall Street Journal

WSJ:

Wages rose 3.2%, both hourly and weekly. That's not quite as strong as some of the year-over-year readings earlier this year, but it's the best number to close the year in over a decade.

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio