Saturday, December 12, 2020
Tuesday, December 8, 2020
Saturday, December 5, 2020
Monday, November 30, 2020
Thursday, August 13, 2020
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
Saturday, May 9, 2020
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
Monday, April 13, 2020
Monday, April 6, 2020
Suggested reading: Munger on Alesina, etl on Austerity
Over at EconLib.org, Michael Munger reviews Alesina et.al. Here's an excerpt:
"So, austerity is a second best policy, contingent on a particular kind of government failure. Alesina et al note that the effectiveness of austerity is controversial, with the discussion in the press “often taking a very ideological, harsh, and unproductive tone.” (page 3) The reasons given for why austerity should be selected by a government, or should be imposed as a condition of extension of loans by creditors, are obvious: (a) the ratio of debt to GDP has grown perilously large, raising questions about whether even the existing debt can be repaid, and (b) crises, fiscal needs arising from wars or major economic downturns in the business cycle or in currency exchange markets.
The critics claim that austerity is a moralistic, punitive policy designed to cause pain for excess deficits, one that fails even on its own logic because it actually pushes debt to GDP ratios higher rather than lower. The argument is that GDP shrinks sharply as government spending is cut, and even if debt falls, GDP falls by more which worsens the problem and causes an economic storm.
In a way, that’s the end of the story. Because Alesina, et al. are able to give a decisive resolution to the controversy: not all austerities are the same. In fact, there are two very different types: a focus on raising taxes, and a focus on cutting spending. When it comes to imposing an austerity of “sharply increased taxes” variety, the anti-austerity activists probably have the best of it. But when the austerity takes the form of large-scale cuts, not just in budgets but in entire programs, the larger weight of evidence by far falls on the “austerity works” side of the scale."Read the whole review here.
Friday, March 13, 2020
Massachusetts Unemployment and Job Estimates for January 2020; URate 2.8%; YoY payrolls 33,400
This just in from the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development:
BOSTON, MA (March 13, 2020)– The state’s January total unemployment remained unchanged at 2.8 percent for the sixth consecutive month following on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual revisions, the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development announced Friday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary job estimates indicate Massachusetts added 11,800 jobs in January. Over the month, the private sector added 11,100 jobs as gains occurred in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; Education and Health Services; Professional, Scientific, and Business Services; Financial Activities; Leisure and Hospitality; Other Services; Information; Construction; and Manufacturing.
From January 2019 to January 2020, BLS estimates Massachusetts added 33,400 jobs.
The January unemployment rate was eight-tenths of a percentage point lower than the national rate of 3.6 percent reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"Following year-end revisions, BLS now estimates Massachusetts added 33,400 jobs over the year. In addition to those job gains, the labor force increased by 27,000 from last year’s level, with 39,400 more residents employed and 12,300 fewer residents unemployed," Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said.
The labor force increased by 1,900 from 3,834,300 in December, as 2,300 more residents were employed and 400 fewer residents were unemployed over the month.
Over the year, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped three-tenths of a percentage point.
The state’s labor force participation rate – the total number of residents 16 or older who worked or were unemployed and actively sought work in the last four weeks – remained unchanged at 67.9 percent. Compared to January 2019, the labor force participation rate is up two-tenths of a percentage point.
The largest private sector percentage job gains over the year were in Information; Education and Health Services; Professional, Scientific, and Business Services; and Construction.
Annual revisions to the job estimates show growth was greater than previously published for 2018 and less in 2019. In 2018, 42,700 jobs were added over the year. In 2019, estimates indicate 26,100 jobs were added over the year. BLS annually updates job estimates for each state with the most up-to-date information supplied by employers.
Annual year-end revisions show the unemployment rates were slightly lower than the previously published estimates for August 2019 through November 2019. The labor force estimates were lower than previously published estimates for 2015 to 2019.
January 2020 Employment Overview
Trade, Transportation and Utilities added 3,400 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Trade, Transportation and Utilities gained 2,900 (+0.5%) jobs.
Education and Health Services added 2,000 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Education and Health Services gained 11,700 (+1.4%) jobs.
Professional, Scientific and Business Services added 1,600 (+0.3%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Professional, Scientific and Business Services gained 7,000 (+1.2%) jobs.
Financial Activities added 1,100 (+0.5%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Financial Activities gained 1,300 (+0.6%) jobs.
Leisure and Hospitality added 800 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Leisure and Hospitality gained 2,100 (+0.6%).
Other Services added 800 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Other Services are up 100 (+0.1%) jobs.
Information added 600 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Information gained 3,600 (+3.9%) jobs.
Construction added 500 (+0.3%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Construction has added 1,000 (+0.6%) jobs.
Manufacturing added 300 (+0.1%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Manufacturing lost 1,500 (-0.6%) jobs.
Government added 700 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Government gained 5,200 (+1.1%) jobs.
Labor Force Overview
The January estimates show 3,729,900 Massachusetts residents were employed and 106,200 were unemployed, for a total labor force of 3,836,100. The unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8 percent. The January labor force increased by 1,900 from 3,834,300 in December, as 2,300 more residents were employed and 400 fewer residents were unemployed over the month. The labor force participation rate, the share of working age population employed and unemployed, remained unchanged at 67.9 percent. The labor force was up 27,000 from the 3,809,100 January 2019 estimate, with 39,400 more residents employed and 12,300 fewer residents unemployed.
Detailed labor market information is available at www.mass.gov/lmi.
BOSTON, MA (March 13, 2020)– The state’s January total unemployment remained unchanged at 2.8 percent for the sixth consecutive month following on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual revisions, the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development announced Friday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary job estimates indicate Massachusetts added 11,800 jobs in January. Over the month, the private sector added 11,100 jobs as gains occurred in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; Education and Health Services; Professional, Scientific, and Business Services; Financial Activities; Leisure and Hospitality; Other Services; Information; Construction; and Manufacturing.
From January 2019 to January 2020, BLS estimates Massachusetts added 33,400 jobs.
The January unemployment rate was eight-tenths of a percentage point lower than the national rate of 3.6 percent reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"Following year-end revisions, BLS now estimates Massachusetts added 33,400 jobs over the year. In addition to those job gains, the labor force increased by 27,000 from last year’s level, with 39,400 more residents employed and 12,300 fewer residents unemployed," Labor and Workforce Development Secretary Rosalin Acosta said.
The labor force increased by 1,900 from 3,834,300 in December, as 2,300 more residents were employed and 400 fewer residents were unemployed over the month.
Over the year, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped three-tenths of a percentage point.
The state’s labor force participation rate – the total number of residents 16 or older who worked or were unemployed and actively sought work in the last four weeks – remained unchanged at 67.9 percent. Compared to January 2019, the labor force participation rate is up two-tenths of a percentage point.
The largest private sector percentage job gains over the year were in Information; Education and Health Services; Professional, Scientific, and Business Services; and Construction.
Annual revisions to the job estimates show growth was greater than previously published for 2018 and less in 2019. In 2018, 42,700 jobs were added over the year. In 2019, estimates indicate 26,100 jobs were added over the year. BLS annually updates job estimates for each state with the most up-to-date information supplied by employers.
Annual year-end revisions show the unemployment rates were slightly lower than the previously published estimates for August 2019 through November 2019. The labor force estimates were lower than previously published estimates for 2015 to 2019.
January 2020 Employment Overview
Trade, Transportation and Utilities added 3,400 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Trade, Transportation and Utilities gained 2,900 (+0.5%) jobs.
Education and Health Services added 2,000 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Education and Health Services gained 11,700 (+1.4%) jobs.
Professional, Scientific and Business Services added 1,600 (+0.3%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Professional, Scientific and Business Services gained 7,000 (+1.2%) jobs.
Financial Activities added 1,100 (+0.5%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Financial Activities gained 1,300 (+0.6%) jobs.
Leisure and Hospitality added 800 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Leisure and Hospitality gained 2,100 (+0.6%).
Other Services added 800 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Other Services are up 100 (+0.1%) jobs.
Information added 600 (+0.6%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Information gained 3,600 (+3.9%) jobs.
Construction added 500 (+0.3%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Construction has added 1,000 (+0.6%) jobs.
Manufacturing added 300 (+0.1%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Manufacturing lost 1,500 (-0.6%) jobs.
Government added 700 (+0.2%) jobs over the month. Over the year, Government gained 5,200 (+1.1%) jobs.
Labor Force Overview
The January estimates show 3,729,900 Massachusetts residents were employed and 106,200 were unemployed, for a total labor force of 3,836,100. The unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8 percent. The January labor force increased by 1,900 from 3,834,300 in December, as 2,300 more residents were employed and 400 fewer residents were unemployed over the month. The labor force participation rate, the share of working age population employed and unemployed, remained unchanged at 67.9 percent. The labor force was up 27,000 from the 3,809,100 January 2019 estimate, with 39,400 more residents employed and 12,300 fewer residents unemployed.
Detailed labor market information is available at www.mass.gov/lmi.
Consumer responses to COVID-19 -- Friday, March 13, 2020: Scenes from the rush to stock up, Danvers and Middleton
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| Shoppers pretty much cleared out the tomato sauce aisle at MarketBasket in Middleton |
The oil glut is showing up at the pump.
The line at the Costco in Danvers was at least 100 yards long
Monday, January 20, 2020
On my reading list: Selected papers
Some collected readings for my list.
Julian Reiss. The Methodology of Positive Economics: Reflections on the Milton Friedman Legacy, ed. Uskali Mäki. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Link.
Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Patrick J. Kennedy and Amit K. Khandelwal. The Return to Protectionism. Link.
Gilbert Cette, Lorraine Koehl, Thomas Philippon. Labor Shares in Some Advanced Economies. Link.
Grace Weishi Gu, Eswar Prasad. New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S. Link.
Robert J. Gordon. Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips Curve Viewed from a Half Century's Perspective. Link.
Andrew B. Hall, Jesse Yoder. Does Homeownership Influence Political Behavior? Evidence from Administrative Data. Link.
Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress. The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States. Link.
Patrick Bajari, Victor Chernozhukov, Ali Hortaçsu, Junichi Suzuki. The Impact of Big Data on Firm Performance: An Empirical Investigation. Link.
Jared Walczak, Tax Trends at the Dawn of 2020. Tax Foundation. Link.
David Neumark, Peter Shirley. The Long-Run Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Women's Earnings. Link.
David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence F. Katz, Christina Patterson, John Van Reenen. Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share. Link.
David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence F. Katz, Christina Patterson, John Van Reenen. The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms. Link.
Murray Rothbard. Robert Nozick and the Immaculate Conception of the State. Link.
Austan Goolsbee. Public Policy in an AI Economy. NBER. Link.
Dani Rodrik. What Do Trade Agreements Really Do? Link.
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