Barry Smitherman: How Texas used a free market to reduce electricity prices and pollution – Knowledge Problem

Barry Smitherman: How Texas used a free market to reduce electricity prices and pollution – Knowledge Problem

Where the U.S. imports steel from: A Statista Chart

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New NBER Working Paper: U.S. Employment and Opioids: Is There a Connection?

From a new NBER Working Paper "U.S. Employment and Opioids: Is There a Connection?" by Janet Currie, Jonas Y. Jin and Molly Schnell.

Abstract:

This paper uses quarterly county-level data to examine the relationship between opioid prescription rates and employment-to-population ratios from 2006-2014.  We first estimate models of the effect of opioid prescription rates on employment-to-population ratios, instrumenting opioid prescriptions for younger ages using opioid prescriptions to the elderly.  We also estimate models of the effect of employment-to-population ratios on opioid prescription rates using a shift-share instrument.  We find that the estimated effect of opioids on employment-to-population ratios is positive but small for women, but there is no relationship for men.  These findings suggest that although they are addictive and dangerous, opioids may allow some women to work who would otherwise leave the labor force.  When we examine the effect of employment-to-population ratios on opioid prescriptions, our results are more ambiguous.  Overall, our findings suggest that there is no simple causal relationship between economic conditions and the abuse of opioids.  Therefore, while improving economic conditions in depressed areas is desirable for many reasons, it is unlikely to curb the opioid epidemic.

The working paper is available here, (gated).

Forecasting: principles and practice: Rob J Hyndman, George Athanasopoulos: 8601404468544: Amazon.com: Books

Forecasting: principles and practice: Rob J Hyndman, George Athanasopoulos: 8601404468544: Amazon.com: Books

Forecasting: principles and practice: Rob J Hyndman, George Athanasopoulos: 8601404468544: Amazon.com: Books

Forecasting: principles and practice: Rob J Hyndman, George Athanasopoulos: 8601404468544: Amazon.com: Books

The Rise and Fall of the American Farmer | Geopolitical Monitor

The Rise and Fall of the American Farmer | Geopolitical Monitor

Business and Industry: Time Series / Trend Charts

Business and Industry: Time Series / Trend Charts

Demographics and Automation (as in Robots!)

From a new NBER Working Paper by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo.

Abstract:

We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, and in particular, to more intensive use and development of robots.  Using US data, we document that robots substitute for middle-aged workers (those between the ages of 36 and 55).  We then show that demographic change--corresponding to an increasing ratio of older to middle-aged workers--is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across US commuting zones.  We also provide evidence of more rapid development of automation technologies in countries undergoing greater demographic change.  Our directed technological change model further predicts that the induced adoption of automation technology should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation.  Both of these predictions receive support from country-industry variation in the adoption of robots.  Our model also implies that the productivity implications of aging are ambiguous when technology responds to demographic change, but we should expect productivity to increase and labor share to decline relatively in industries that are most amenable to automation, and this is indeed the pattern we find in the data. 

Gated NBER Working Paper #24421 available here. 

New NBER Working Paper: NAFTA and the Wages of Married Women

A new working paper by Shushanik Hakobyan and John McLaren.

Abstract:

Using US Census data for 1990-2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on US wages, focusing on differences by gender.  We find that NAFTA tariff reductions are associated with substantially reduced wage growth for married blue-collar women, much larger than the effect for other demographic groups.  We investigate several possible explanations for this finding.  It is not explained by differential sensitivity of female-dominated occupations to trade shocks, or by household bargaining that makes married women workers less able to change their industry of employment than other workers. We find some support for an explanation based on an equilibrium theory of selective non-participation in the labor market, whereby some of the higher-wage married women workers in their industry drop out of the labor market in response to their industry's loss of tariff.  However, this does not fully explain the findings so we are left with a puzzle.

Gated edition of the paper is here. 

Where a loaf of bread costs and arm and a leg

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Waves of immigration and educational attainment: What progress looks like

From a new NBER Working Paper, "Socioeconomic Integration of U.S. Immigrant Groups over the Long Term: The Second Generation and Beyond," by Brian Duncan and Stephen J. Trejo  

Abstract:

In this chapter, we document generational patterns of educational attainment and earnings for contemporary immigrant groups.  We also discuss some potentially serious measurement issues that arise when attempting to track the socioeconomic progress of the later-generation descendants of U.S. immigrants, and we summarize what recent research has to say about these measurement issues and how they might bias our assessment of the long-term integration of particular groups.  Most national origin groups arrive with relatively high educational attainment and/or experience enough improvement between the first and second generations such that they quickly meet or exceed, on average, the schooling level of the typical American.  Several large and important Hispanic groups (including Mexicans and Puerto Ricans) are exceptions to this pattern, however, and their prospects for future upward mobility are subject to much debate.  Because of measurement issues and data limitations, Mexican Americans in particular and Hispanic Americans in general probably have experienced significantly more socioeconomic progress beyond the second generation than available data indicate.  Even so, it may take longer for their descendants to integrate fully into the American mainstream than it did for the descendants of the European immigrants who arrived near the turn of the twentieth century.

From the U.S. Census, an infographic: An aging nation

More from the U.S. Census.

AIER: Why Fiscal Warnings Fall on Deaf Ears

From the American Institute for Economic Research:

Why Fiscal Warnings Fall on Deaf Ears: The most profound and important insight from Miron's contribution is the political resistance to sufficient spending cuts, which are unavoidable, since neither higher taxes nor higher growth provide a path to solvency.

Tariffs are taxes and are a deadweight loss to the following U.S. States

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ADP Private Employment for February 2018: +235,000