New NBER Working Paper: "Work of the Past, Work of the Future" by David Autor

From a new NBER Working Paper, "work of the Past, Work of the Future," by David Autor 

Abstract:

Labor markets in U.S. cities today are vastly more educated and skill-intensive than they were five decades ago. Yet, urban non-college workers perform substantially less skilled work than decades earlier. This deskilling reflects the joint effects of automation and international trade, which have eliminated the bulk of non-college production, administrative support, and clerical jobs, yielding a disproportionate polarization of urban labor markets. The unwinding of the urban non-college occupational skill gradient has, I argue, abetted a secular fall in real non-college wages by: (1) shunting non-college workers out of specialized middle-skill occupations into low-wage occupations that require only generic skills; (2) diminishing the set of non-college workers that hold middle-skill jobs in high-wage cities; and (3) attenuating, to a startling degree, the steep urban wage premium for non-college workers that prevailed in earlier decades. Changes in the nature of work—many! of which are technological in origin—have been more disruptive and less beneficial for non-college than college workers.

Gated copy here.

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US EMPSIT: January 2019: U-Rate: 4.0%; Jobs: +304,000

OVERVIEW

• The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0 percent in January with payrolls expanding by 304,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  
• The Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate changed little at 63.2 percent. The Employment-Population ratio also remained at 60.7 percent. Both measures are up 0.5 percentage points over the year. 
• Job gains took place in Leisure and Hospitality (+74,000) and Construction (+52,000) Health Care (+42,000) and Transportation and Warehousing (+27,000) In addition, Professional and Business Services added 30,000 jobs.
• According to the BLS, the following sectors saw little or no change in employment:  Wholesale Trade, Information and Financial Activities. 
• Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 85 cents or 3.2 percent. In January, the average hourly private nonfarm wage rang in at $27.56. The average workweek for all employees was unchanged at 34.5 hours. 
• The number of persons employed part-time increased to 5.1 million in January, most of it coming from the private sector and due to the shutdown.
• The number of long-termed unemployed (greater than 27 weeks) remained unchanged at 1.3 million. 

ANALYSIS

If anyone was looking for the federal government shutdown to pause the American jobs machine, they will have to look elsewhere. The economy entered its 100th straight month of increased employment. 

According to the latest measurement, the shutdown had minimal impact on job creation with the payrolls number arriving at 304,000.  

Wall Street economists expected a January print of approximately 170,000 jobs.  

On Wednesday, ADP, the payroll processing company, reported an increase of 213,000 private sector jobs in January. Today, the BLS reported the economy created 296,000 private sector jobs. Both measures generally track together (See chart above). 

According to the BLS, federal government employment was unchanged in January. The agency explained: “Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received pay (or will receive pay) for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.” 

Revisions to the two previous months resulted in a decline of 70,000 jobs. The November 2018 number was revised up from +176,000 to +196,000. However, the December number was revised downward from +312,000 to +222,000. 

The decline is explained by the BLS adjustment of its annual benchmarking process. Accounting for these revisions, the three-month average rang in at 241,000 per month. 

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