- The unemployment rate declined to 3.9 percent in July with payrolls expanding by 157,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The Labor Force Participation (LFP) remained at 62.9 percent. The employment-population ratio rose in July to 60.5 percent; it has increased by 0.3 percentage point over the year. The number of unemployed for the month was 6.3 million. Since last year 676,000 persons left the status of unemployment.
- In July employment grew in the manufacturing, health care, construction and professional services.
- Manufacturing added 37,000 jobs with durable goods manufacturing accounting for most of the gain. Over the past year manufacturing has added 327,000 jobs.
- Professional and business services added 51,000 jobs. This sector has added 518,000 jobs over the past year.
- Employment in the other major sectors—mining, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government —changed little over the month.
- Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents or 2.7 percent.
- Among major worker groups he jobs rates remained unchanged except for adult men and Whites.
ANALYSIS
The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs failing to meet the consensus figure of 190,000. However, the report looks even better when considering the moving three-month average of 224,000. That’s because figures for the previous two-months were revised upward (+244,000 to +268,000 for May and +213,000 to +248,000 for June).
The number of part-time workers was little changed in July at 4.6 million but declined by 669,000 over the past year. The number of long-term unemployed (more than 27 weeks) also was unchanged at 1.4 million. This group accounts for 22.7 percent of all unemployed.
Retail trade changed little with an increase of 7,000 jobs; those gains were essentially wiped out by the decline of 32,000 jobs in sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores. Manufacturing continues to grow although it is far from pre-recession levels. (See chart.)
Manufacturing grew in the transportation equipment subsector (+13,000), machinery (+6,000) and electronic instruments (+2,000). Manufacturing has not recovered the jobs lost after the onset of the Great Recession. It is unclear how the pending trade and tariff wars will play out in the job market over the next few months. Opinions are varied. "While the ongoing trade dispute may discourage businesses to invest and hire down the road, today's jobs report suggests the jobs market is not yet collateral damage," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings in New York.
