From the Boston Fed:
Speaking in New York, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that underlying trends suggest "an economy that risks pushing past what is sustainable, raising the probability of higher asset prices, or inflation well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target."
"Steps lowering the probability of such an outcome seem advisable – in other words, seem like insurance worth taking out at this time," he said. "As a result, it is my view that regular and gradual removal of monetary accommodation seems appropriate."
Noting that the weakness in inflation readings appears to be transitory, Rosengren said "the declines in the unemployment rate below the level most see as sustainable seem likely to be more long-lasting."
"Discerning the underlying trends in unemployment and inflation – looking through transitory effects – is likely to be quite difficult in coming months," Rosengren said, citing the impact of recent hurricanes on economic data.
In addition, Rosengren noted that the Federal Reserve's dual mandate indicators – employment and inflation – are sending somewhat conflicting signals of late: labor markets have continued to improve, yet inflation has slipped down a notch this year.
Asking how policymakers might resolve the conflicting signals when "the central bank's dual mandate is 'dueling,'" Rosengren explored the forecasts of both central bankers and private forecasters. Both suggest that by the end of next year, inflation is expected to be close to target, while the unemployment rate will continue to fall – and as a result, will move further below most estimates of a sustainable unemployment rate.
Read more: Trends and Transitory Shocks - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
